World Cup exit money

The Last Straw: In one of his safer predictions, the great economist JK Galbraith expressed confidence that, even in the long term, the prospects of separating fools and their money remained high.

Reports this week that an English soccer fan has taken out a £1 million (€1.45 million) insurance policy against the disappointment of his team making an early World Cup exit appear to support the case. According to Sky News, Ipswich-based Paul Hucker's premium was only £105 (€153), including tax. But even so.

For him to collect the million, five independent experts will have to agree that an English exit was premature; following which, Hucker must produce medical evidence that he is suffering from severe psychological trauma as a result. The first weakness in such a claim is that he is a Newcastle supporter, and therefore suffering is his natural condition. But even if the insurers don't screw him on this, England's record will surely be used against him. As long ago as Euro '96, the English theme-song spoke of "30 years of hurt". A 33.3 per cent increase in accumulated pain later, how can any England fan prove that his pain is unusual? There's nothing new about sports fans insuring themselves against disappointment. It's just that traditionally, the policy is taken out at the bookie's shop, in the form of a bet on the opposition. Part of the reason Leinster were favourites for last month's Heineken European Rugby Cup semi-final, I'm sure, was that some of the more committed Munster fans secretly backed a blue victory, in order to pay for the counselling sessions they would have needed had such a result happened. They didn't get the odds offered by Hucker's insurers, but at least the policy conditions were simple and the payout would have been guaranteed.

This nation has been spared the emotional extremes associated with involvement in the World Cup finals. Nevertheless, some Irish fans may even now be considering insurance against the psychological trauma they would suffer if England do not make an early exit, or even - horror of horrors - if they win. I don't mean you and me, obviously: we're over that whole post-colonial thing. But there are many people out there - less mature than us - for whom an English World Cup victory would, as a cause of stress, rank just behind a fire at Sellafield. As I've said before, nothing would have pleased me more than England winning the 2006 tournament, if only the team hadn't been hijacked by the global conspiracy to force cosmetics on men. The face of this conspiracy is David Beckham - still, incredibly, passing himself off as an international footballer. If his manicured hands lift the World Cup, future generations of men will be condemned to daily moisturising, exfoliation and worse. Only that fear, and of course Ireland's cultural and historic links with some of England's opponents - notably Paraguay, and Trinidad & Tobago - would prevent me rejoicing in English success. Perhaps I'll talk to my broker, just to be safe.

ANOTHER THING JK GALBRAITH said was that "all races have produced notable economists, with the exception of the Irish, who doubtless can protest their devotion to higher arts". God knows how, but despite this deficiency, Ireland has muddled through. Indeed, according to a business seminar in UCD this week, the country is moving beyond the Celtic Tiger development stage to become a "major global player". A top US banker predicted we could become "the Switzerland of the 21st century." It's not clear what would happen to the current Switzerland under this plan. But if I were Swiss, I'd keep a close eye on Geneva resident JP McManus, who you can be sure is in on the deal.

JK's comment was not necessarily meant as a criticism. Although extremely notable himself, he once claimed he would rather be remembered as a writer than an economist "or anything as dreary as that". So Ireland's historic overproduction of writers and poets - which makes a mockery of supply-demand law - would hardly have worried him. Nor, now, will the question of whether Ireland's economist/writer ratio will be reversed by growing wealth, bringing the country a literary famine as well as a series of Nobel prizes for economics.

Galbraith, who also formulated the rule that there was "no such thing as a free lunch", was a disciple of John Maynard Keynes - no slouch either at saying quotable things. Keynes's scepticism about long-term predictions was famously expressed thus: "In the long term, we are all dead." His pupil went some way to discrediting the theory, by living to be 97. As of last Saturday, however, Keynes's law is once again unchallenged.