ANALYSIS:THE LATEST Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll findings mirror almost exactly the general election result from earlier this year. It seems voters are sticking with the choice they made in February, for now at least.
Compared to the election outcome, Fine Gael is up two points to 38 per cent in today’s poll. Fine Gael’s coalition partners, Labour, are on 18 per cent, a drop of just one point. Combined support for the two parties of Government is therefore holding steady.
The latest poll also confirms no rebound in popularity for Fianna Fáil, which registers 18 per cent support, an increase of just one point since the election. Sinn Féin (on 10 per cent) and the Green Party (on 2 per cent) are unchanged, while Independents/ Others (on 14 per cent) are just one point lower than their election showing.
While party support ratings have not shifted to any great extent since the election, satisfaction with the performance of the Government has. In our February poll, there was an extremely low level of satisfaction with the previous Fianna Fáil/Green Party government, at just 4 per cent. However, satisfaction for the current Government is at 37 per cent. It should be noted that a satisfaction level of 37 per cent is not especially high, but compares favourably with ratings achieved by other coalitions during times of economic uncertainty.
Fine Gael's worst fears have not yet come to pass. Despite taking the reins in the middle of a crisis, the party has maintained its popularity. Indeed, it has been more than 25 years since Fine Gael polled as high as 38 per cent in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll.
Also encouraging for Fine Gael has been the performance of Enda Kenny. His relatively lacklustre poll ratings as a party leader have been replaced by a more robust rating as Taoiseach. Kenny tops the leader satisfaction table in today’s poll, with 53 per cent.
Since entering Government, it has not been completely plain sailing for Fine Gael, but remarkably the only punch to have landed has been the Roscommon hospital downgrade furore. How this may have affected Kenny’s appeal or party support is hard to say.
However, support for Fine Gael has risen in every region, except in Connacht/ Ulster where the party has dropped six points (down to 38 per cent) since our last poll in February.
In recent times, the electorate has not rewarded minority parties of Government for their contribution to managing the country and the economy. So Labour will be eager to ensure that it is seen to be playing its part in bringing about the recovery we so badly need.
Today’s poll shows no significant change in Labour’s position: the party is only one point lower than its general election result (down to 18 per cent) in overall support. And Eamon Gilmore’s personal satisfaction rating (of 44 per cent) is very much in line with his pre-election ratings. Yet there may be some early signs that the party could fall between the two stools of Government and Opposition. First, Gilmore has ceded the title of most popular party leader to Kenny. Second, the gap between Fine Gael and Labour has widened, with Labour now on a par with Fianna Fáil.
For Fianna Fáil, it will be a long road back to the level of prominence and popularity the party once enjoyed. Today’s poll perhaps provides some evidence, albeit tentative, that the journey may have begun. Support for the party is up one point (to 18 per cent) on its election result, and satisfaction with Micheál Martin’s performance as party leader is up to 37 per cent, a gain of eight points.
For Fianna Fáil, the first step will be the easiest – winning back the support of previously staunch supporters. Then the difficult work will begin.
An analysis of today’s poll findings reveals continued weak support for the party among urban voters, especially in Dublin (9 per cent). The party also draws heavily on older (50-plus years) voters for support, a bias that would need correction if the party is to win back the popular vote. Good news can be found for Fianna Fáil among the ABs (those from professional/ upper managerial backgrounds), where the party has recovered some ground, up to 18 per cent support, and ahead of Labour (although still well adrift of Fine Gael, which has the support of 57 per cent of ABs).
The performance of Sinn Féin has been remarkably consistent over the past 10 years, oscillating within the 9 per cent to 11 per cent range, with only the occasional foray beyond these limits. Sinn Féin is in the middle of this range, on 10 per cent, in today’s poll. The party has a very loyal core vote, which anchors it within this range. However, Sinn Féin has struggled to find any resonance beyond younger, working-class voters.
In much the same way that the Sinn Féin vote tends to operate within a certain range, satisfaction with the party’s leader has proven remarkably consistent over the past three years, never dropping below 27 per cent or climbing above 34 per cent.
In today’s poll, Gerry Adams registers 31 per cent satisfaction.
All the signs are that the Green Party has returned to its core vote, with 2 per cent. In every way, its new leader, Eamon Ryan, has a blank page on which to map out a strategy for his party.
The Greens are unburdened by government responsibilities, and Ryan’s own profile as leader is still building – he has just a 16 per cent satisfaction rating, but 50 per cent of voters have yet to form an opinion either way.
Independents/Others stand in today’s poll just one point lower (on 14 per cent) than their February election performance.
Almost five months after the election, voters continue to keep faith with the choice they made on February 25th.
These findings raise the question: what happens if voters lose faith (a strong possibility considering the very tough times and tough decisions that lie ahead)?
If the Government fails the test of economic management, where will voters go?
Unless Fianna Fáil is forgiven, there are no obvious alternative homes for the conservative, middle-class vote. And with nowhere to go, it is most likely that voter frustration will be taken out on one or other of the current parties of Government. Will Labour be blamed for blocking change or Fine Gael for not delivering it? We can’t stay where we are forever.