THE UNITED Nations has sent an investigation team to a disputed border region in southern Sudan. The southern Sudanese army has alleged four of its men and two civilians were wounded by gunfire from a northern helicopter in an attack on Wednesday.
The assault in the region of Bahr al-Ghazal, if confirmed to be true, would be the second time this month northern Sudanese forces have attacked the south as tensions rise ahead of a planned referendum on independence for the south on January 9th, 2011.
"This is just the latest in a continuous campaign of harassment by the north," Lt Gen Obuto Mamur told The Irish Timesfrom Juba, the southern Sudan capital. "Their intention is to bring us to war but we will not be provoked."
The northern government in Khartoum strongly denied the attack took place, as the UN said it was considering sending an additional 2,000 peacekeeping troops to the region.
The incident comes as a new report warns a return to war in Sudan could cost more than $100 billion. According to the London-based think tank Frontier Economics, renewed fighting would cost Sudan $50 billion in lost GDP; neighbouring countries $25 billion; and the international community in excess of $30 billion if it was forced to send in UN peacekeeping troops and humanitarian aid.
An on-off 50-year civil war between the north and the south that ended in 2005 left two million dead and millions more displaced.
Strong accusations have been made by both sides of a military build-up along the yet-to-be demarcated border between the mainly Muslim north and the Christian- and Animist-dominated south.
Sudan’s economy depends on oil revenues for the bulk of its foreign currency earnings, but most of the oil is produced in the south. At present, 98 per cent of oil revenues from the south’s two oil-producing states of Unity and Upper Nile are split between the north and south, but that arrangement is set to end in July 2011.
“The foundations for a constructive post-referendum relationship are yet to be laid,” warned the International Crisis Group this week, adding that the pace of negotiations to date was “cause for concern”.
“It is very difficult to see how things will pan out” said Fouad Hikmat, a special adviser to the African Union on Sudan. “The UN might say it is sending additional troops, but it is difficult to see the NCP [Sudan’s ruling party] agreeing to let them do that.”