Tory leader to link terror war and NI

The Conservative conference will reach its finale in Blackpool this morning with the leader's speech

The Conservative conference will reach its finale in Blackpool this morning with the leader's speech. Many will have missed its opening on Monday when Mr Iain Duncan Smith appeared before the faithful only to take his leave, explaining he had "a job to do" back at a recalled House of Commons. The Prime Minister was due to report on the opening of the allied assault on Osama bin Laden and the Taliban regime.

Had it not been for the "war" the new Tory leader might have had one hell-of-a-job in Blackpool squaring the Clarke and Portillo factions disaffected by the leadership contest and the apparent triumph for the hard right.

As it is nobody much is listening - with the duration of the leader's exposure on news bulletins contingent upon events in Afghanistan. It is not hard to understand the disappointment of the Tory rank-and-file at finding themselves so brutally eclipsed. They have elected a soldier leader whose pro-American instincts made him the Tory of choice for many of Washington's own conservative elite. Unfortunately for them Mr Blair has thus far proved an admirable war leader.

While the Prime Minister basks in the glow of comparison with Thatcher and Churchill, it is left to Mr Duncan Smith to lead Her Majesty's loyal opposition.

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That is no bad thing. If the Tory leader adopts a modest posture in support of Mr Blair this morning he will be reflecting the popular mood in the country.

At the party conference the scene will be set this morning by Mr David Trimble. It will be interesting to see whether the Ulster Unionist leader breaks the present consensual mood by repeating his charge that Mr Blair is "temporising" with terrorism in Northern Ireland. Of equal interest to many Tories is what the provision of a set-piece slot for Mr Trimble says about the continuing behind-the-scenes negotiations aimed at formalising relations between the Conservative and Ulster Unionist parties. Those discussions were commenced earlier this year with Mr Michael Ancram, now deputy leader of the Conservative Party, and are believed to carry the approval of Mr Duncan Smith.

Without offering any criticism of Mr Blair, Mr Duncan Smith will draw on the Northern Ireland experience as he develops his theme of insecurity abroad and at home, and the need to defeat domestic as well as international terrorism. In a powerful section of his speech he is expected to say: "There will be no end to violence in Northern Ireland that doesn't see us tackle the mafia sub-culture that sustains it". And he is likely to demand that all loyalist and republican weapons be put permanently beyond use, or else "there can be no place for the representatives of terrorists in the government of Northern Ireland."

He will also attempt to cast Labour as the party of "ideology", telling the Tories that - just as they had to rescue a failing economy in 1979 - it now falls to them to produce fresh thinking and new methods of delivery on transport, schools and hospitals.

Mr Duncan Smith then starts-off strong on aspiration. However yesterday, as he again described Lady Thatcher as "the past", he reinforced the sense of how far he must travel before he can convincingly define a future, either for his party or for his country.