Will the story of the 2010 election in Wales be that of Labour’s star waning?
THERE ARE few better places to observe how the dynamics of this week’s election might appear when viewed through a Welsh prism than here in the north Wales constituency of the Vale of Clwyd.
The seat, which has been held by the same Labour MP since 1997, is one of several in Wales coveted by Conservatives anxious to dispel the notion that theirs is an essentially English party. With Tory prospects in Scotland looking less than rosy, the party has turned its attention to the valleys.
For years Wales, resolutely Labour with some pockets long beholden to the Lib Dems, was seen as a virtual no-go area for the Tories. In two of the last three general elections, the party returned no Welsh MPs. Recent years, however, have witnessed something of a comeback.
“We’ve forged in Wales a brand of Conservatism which is a very community-orientated, moderate approach which chimes with the Welsh way of thinking,” said Matt Wright, the Tory challenger in the Vale of Clwyd.
In the 2005 Westminster vote, the Conservatives secured three Welsh seats, and last year the party finished first in the European elections. In the 2007 Welsh assembly ballot, Wright cut Labour’s majority to just 92.
“This is one of the seats we need to take to form a working majority,” said Wright. “We believe it is on the cusp.”
Tory leader David Cameron has been a frequent visitor to Wales. Last month, he chose to launch the party’s Welsh manifesto in the Vale of Clwyd, a constituency that includes genteel coastal towns as well as some of the most deprived wards in Wales.
Other Tory bigwigs including William Hague have also passed through. “I am a target for them, I know that, but I’m not fazed by it,” insisted Chris Ruane, the sitting Labour MP, as he prepared to canvass lunchtime shoppers on Rhyl’s High Street, which, like most of this once popular seaside resort, has a faded, dilapidated air. “I’m not letting people forget about the Tory record here.”
Last weekend, during a visit to several towns in the Vale of Clwyd, British foreign secretary David Miliband drew on the area’s still painful memories of the Thatcher era – Shotton, where 6,500 steelworkers were laid off in one day in 1980, is a short drive away – to warn of a Tory government “doing the damage it did to Wales in the 1980s and 1990s”.
Brigid Yates, a septuagenarian from Co Cavan who has lived in Rhyl for decades, said locals were still wary of the Conservatives: “People still remember those awful days . . . and they wonder if the Tories have changed at all.”
But there are dissenting voices. Stacey O’Neill (28), a teacher and mother of two, voted Labour in the past but is now undecided.
“Yes, suspicions remain about the Tories but people are looking for something new. There’s more competition for Labour this time,” she said.
“I’m leaning towards the Lib Dems because it is time for change.”
Will the story of the 2010 election in Wales be that of Labour’s star waning? Aside from the Tory challenge, Labour finds itself trying to counter the Nick Clegg effect, fending off a Lib Dem threat in once-solid Labour bastions such as Newport and Swansea.
But more generally, many believe the party’s hegemony in Wales – where Labour votes were once said to be weighed, not counted – has been diluted in a political landscape changed by demographic shifts and the advent of devolution, which boosted the fortunes of Welsh nationalist party Plaid Cymru.
Ruane takes heart from what he claims is a last-minute firming up of Labour support. The most recent poll of Welsh voters put Labour at 37.5 per cent compared with the 42.7 per cent vote share it garnered in 2005; the Conservatives at 23.5 per cent; the Lib Dems at 21 per cent; and Plaid Cymru at 10.8 per cent.
“I think as we get closer to polling day, reality has struck home and people are asking themselves do they really want cuts, cuts, cuts,” Ruane said.
Labour activists insist reports of the party’s decline in Wales have been greatly exaggerated. After all, they point out, Labour is still by far the biggest player in the assembly and it boasted 29 of the 40 Welsh MPs in the last Westminster parliament.
But there are those like Merfyn Hughes, a lifelong Plaid Cymru supporter, who believe Labour could be in for a shock. “There’s a lot of disaffection out there,” he said. “I think its luck has turned.”