MR BERTIE AHERN is poised to become Taoiseach and to head a Fianna Fail-led government into the new Dail, according to an Irish Times/MRBI survey conducted yesterday. The election day survey is the first of its kind in the history of political research in Ireland.
It is not yet clear, however, whether Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats will have sufficient seats to form a majority government. The PDs are coming under some pressure from the Green Party and will be hard-pushed to return eight TDs to the Dail.
The outgoing Rainbow Government has no chance of being re-elected, even if it were to coalesce with the Green Party to form a four-party coalition.
The election day survey gives the following estimate of the first preference vote for the parties: Fianna Fail 44 per cent, Fine Gael 27 per cent, Labour 8 per cent, PDs 4 per cent, Democratic Left 3 per cent, Green Party 3 per cent and Others 11 per cent.
This represents a 5 percentage point increase in first preference votes for Fianna Fail since the last general election in 1992. It then received 39.11 per cent and won 68 seats, the lowest in its history since 1927. The Fine Gael vote is 3 points higher than it was in 1992. It then won 24.17 per cent and 45 seats.
The Labour Party's vote has collapsed in this election, down from an historic high of 19.31 per cent in 1992, which yielded 33 seats, to 8 per cent in yesterday's survey. Labour could expect to win 20 seats, or fewer, on this vote.
The PD vote will determine whether Mr Ahern will be in a position to form a majority government when the 28th Dail meets on June 26th.
The party received a historic seat bonus of 10 seats for 4.68 per cent of the first preference vote in 1992. It is unlikely to secure a similar return on its vote of 4 per cent in yesterday's polling day survey.
Mr Ahern's chances of forming a majority government with the PDs will depend on vote transfers and the proportion of Dail seats won to votes secured.
Fianna Fail and the PDs win 48 per cent of the first preference vote between them, according to the poll. The Rainbow parties, Fine Gael, Labour and DL, secure 38 per cent of the first preference vote. Even if the Green Party were to support the Rainbow Coalition, the four-party alliance would have only 41 per cent of the first preference vote.
The election day survey was conducted among a representative quota sample of 1,239 electors, who had voted or firmly intended to vote in yesterday's election. The sample extended across 200 locations covering all 41 constituencies in the State.
In Dublin, the cockpit of the election with 47 of the 166 Dail seats, the breakdown for the parties in yesterday's survey is: Fianna Fail 42 per cent, up almost 10 points since 1992; Fine Gael 22 per cent, up 5 points on 1992; Labour 7 per cent, down 19 points from the 26.08 per cent vote in 1992; PDs 6 per cent, up 0.5 points on 1992; DL 7 per cent, up 1.7 points since 1992; Green Party 5 per cent and Others 11 per cent.
These findings indicate that Fianna pail, under a new Dublin leader, is set to make gains in the capital. Fine Gael could also win extra seats. But the Labour Party, which currently holds 13 seats in Dublin, could record many losses.
Fianna Fail strategists believe that the party could win between 75 and 77 seats with 44 per cent of the first preference votes. The party won 44.15 per cent nationally in two recent elections, 1987 and 1989. On the precisely same percentage, it won 81 seats in 1987 and 77 seats in 1989.
The party has worked hard in this election campaign to tighten its own transfer rate internally. It recorded a 70 per cent transfer rate between Fianna Fail candidates in the last election in 1992, almost 10 points below its average in the elections in the 1980s. It believes that it will be able to increase its transfer rate to 75 per cent in today's count and that that alone could yield it the equivalent of an extra 0.6 per cent in first preference votes.
It is also hoping for an extra seat bonus in this election based on the presumption that PD transfers will assist some Fianna Fail candidates. Fianna Fail has maintained consistently throughout the campaign that the absence of an "anti-Fianna Fail factor" should bring transfers from all quarters to the party.
