Surgical use of draconian special powers considered

The Government will tread a thin and careful line when it moves against those dissident republican groups opposed to the Belfast…

The Government will tread a thin and careful line when it moves against those dissident republican groups opposed to the Belfast Agreement at today's special Cabinet meeting.

The key to the Government's intention is its determination to maintain the political momentum behind the peace process. To do that, it must reassure the communities devastated by the Omagh bombing that the men of violence will not prevail. And it must generate greater cohesion among the political parties that have signed up to the agreement.

Having devoted the last five years to a policy designed to draw republicans into the democratic process, the two governments are anxious to avoid the use of security measures that might trigger traditional sympathies for dissident Provisionals in nationalist areas.

In that regard, internment is seen as too blunt an instrument for use at this time. Instead, the Government is contemplating a range of measures, some of which may require legislation. The intention would be to respond in a focused way in removing members and supporters of dissident republicans, and in particular the "Real IRA", from their communities.

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One of the greatest difficulties facing the governments is the uncertain knowledge the security forces have concerning membership of, and support for, the "Real IRA". The Taoiseach put its number at "100 or less" last weekend, while the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, estimated its strength at 30.

These varying assessments probably indicate a paramilitary organisation in a state of flux. The best and most reliable information concerning the dissidents obviously would be found within the Provisional IRA. But there is no certainty that such intelligence will find its way to official sources.

Bertie Ahern identified the Omagh bombers as dissident Provisionals who had been trying to wreck the peace process since last autumn. They would, he said, be "crushed". And he appealed to other republican groups, linked to the INLA and the Continuity Army Council, to declare a ceasefire now if they did not wish to suffer the same fate as the "Real IRA" and the 32-County Sovereignty Movement.

The IRSP responded yesterday by asking the INLA to declare an immediate cessation of violence. And there was speculation that a ceasefire would be called this weekend.

Mr Ahern welcomed that development, but suggested the timescale should be shortened. Hinting that dissident republican organisations might be formally proscribed, he asked for a response from the INLA before today's Cabinet meeting.

Should the INLA end its campaign, it would be easier for the governments to isolate and deal with the remaining dissidents. At this stage, all parties to the Belfast Agreement are expected to acknowledge their responsibility for making it work by co-operating with the authorities.

Blunt repression, through the use of internment, is being ruled out at this stage. Instead, the governments are considering a surgical use of the draconian special powers available to them under existing legislation.

The Garda Commissioner, Mr Pat Byrne, the Attorney General, Mr David Byrne, and other officials, discussed available options with the Minister for Justice yesterday.

Paramilitary organisations opposed to the agreement, along with their political wings, may be formally proscribed in this initiative. Consideration is also being given to the early implementation of the terms of the 1996 Bail Referendum for terrorist offences only. If the Cabinet agrees, John O'Donoghue may make a ministerial order providing for the refusal of bail in cases where a chief superintendent believes that the person before the court may offend again.

The Offences Against the State Act may also be amended to improve its effectiveness against members of illegal organisations.

When the penalty for membership of an illegal organisation was increased from two to seven years' imprisonment in 1976, the courts began to seek corroborative evidence for a chief superintendent's opinion that a person was a member of an illegal organisation. As a result, the provision lost much of its effectiveness.

Now, however, the Government is expected to introduce legislation similar to that already in place to deal with drug trafficking. Seven (instead of two) days' detention will be permitted in paramilitary cases. And the right to remain silent will be amended to allow a court to draw an inference from such silence. Association with members of paramilitary organisations may also be used in that regard, along with a failure to account for one's movements.

Many of these measures may require new legislation in order to place their legitimacy beyond question. As a result, the Cabinet is likely to announce an early recall of the Oireachtas to give the measures speedy effect.

The most likely timescale would involve the Dail returning within 12 days and passing the legislation during a one-day, special sitting. That would set the scene for President Clinton's official visit to Belfast and Dublin in the first week of September and the resumption of the Northern Ireland Assembly on September 14th.

Supporting the Belfast Agreement and maintaining its momentum is the key Government consideration. In that context, Mr Ahern will meet Northern Ireland's First Minister, Mr David Trimble, in the aftermath of today's Cabinet meeting.

Political cohesion between the parties to the agreement and a determination to apply its provisions right across the spectrum is now desperately required. Mr Trimble's visit to Dublin and the Coalition Government's firm response to the security situation in the aftermath of the Omagh atrocity may send the required message to Northern Ireland.