Support for Lisbon Treaty falls eight points to 46%


Support for the Lisbon Treaty has declined over the summer but the Yes side is still in the lead with four weeks to go to the referendum, according to the latest Irish Times /TNS mrbi poll.

The poll shows that 46 per cent would now vote Yes, a drop of eight points since the last Irish Times poll in May, while 29 per cent say they would vote No, an increase of one point.

The number of people in the Don’t Know category has increased by seven points to 25 per cent.

When undecided voters are excluded, the Yes side has 61 per cent, with 39 per cent in the No camp. That compares to the referendum result in June, 2008, of 53.4 per cent No and 46.6 per cent Yes.

The decline in the numbers saying they will vote Yes comes after three Irish Times polls in the first half of 2009 which had shown consistently solid support for Lisbon. Most of those who have left the Yes camp have moved into the Don’t Know category rather than shifting into the No camp.

In the Irish Times poll at a similar stage in the first Lisbon Treaty referendum campaign, 35 per cent said they would vote Yes, 18 per cent said No and 47 per cent said Don’t Know.

The latest poll was taken on Monday and Tuesday of this week among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies.

Voters were asked whether they were likely to vote Yes or No to the Treaty on October 2nd. In the previous poll in May they were asked how they would vote in the light of the decision to retain an Irish Commissioner along with the legal guarantees on neutrality, abortion and taxation.

Voters were also asked if, in the light of the current economic crisis, they thought it was better to be part of the EU. A substantial 80 per cent thought it better to be part of the EU, (down 1 point since the last poll) 9 per cent thought it was not (down 1 point) and 11 per cent had no opinion (up 2 points).

Asked if they were likely to vote 74 per cent said very likely, 13 per cent fairly likely, 2 per cent fairly unlikely, 6 per cent very unlikely and 5 per cent had no opinion. 91 per cent of Yes voters said they were very likely to vote but among No voters the figure was 70 per cent.