Support for Fianna Fáil falls to historic low as Fine Gael holds on to its substantial lead

ANALYSIS: An overwhelming 85 per cent of voters are not satisfied with the way in which the Government is running the country…

ANALYSIS:An overwhelming 85 per cent of voters are not satisfied with the way in which the Government is running the country, writes DAMIAN LOSCHER

THE SUMMER months may have provided some rest for Government Ministers but they have provided no respite for a Government drowning in public dissatisfaction.

Uncertainty around which recommendations from the McCarthy report will be implemented, together with proposals for a property tax and changes to child benefit, have filled the summer news vacuum. Voters in today’s poll could hardly be less equivocal in their verdict on the Government’s performance. An overwhelming 85 per cent of voters are not satisfied with the manner in which the Government is running the country.

Support for Fianna Fáil has fallen three points in the latest Irish Times/ TNS mrbi poll to 17 per cent, a new historic low for the party. The Greens, on 3 per cent, are unchanged.

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Fine Gael, with 34 per cent support, have held on to their substantial lead in the polls despite dropping two points, while Labour are back up to 24 per cent, having gained one point since our May poll.

Conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week, the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll confirms, if further confirmation were needed, a seismic shift in Ireland’s political landscape has occurred, triggered by a collapse in support for Fianna Fáil.

Support for the party has more than halved since the 2007 general election. Perhaps of more concern for Fianna Fáil is the disposition of remaining voters, most of whom (56 per cent) are dissatisfied with how the Government is running the country, and many of whom (42 per cent) would like to see a change in government.

Arguably, Fianna Fáil are being punished by the electorate for squandering the boom, but a perceived lack of leadership may also be contributing to the party’s decline. Just 15 per cent of voters are satisfied with how Brian Cowen is doing his job as Taoiseach, a drop of six points over the summer period. Among Fianna Fáil voters, opinion is divided, with 50 per cent satisfied and 44 per cent dissatisfied with his performance.

With 3 per cent support, the Green Party comes in below the 5 per cent registered in the 2007 general election but on a par with recent polls. The party remains in a very precarious position.

The Green Party leadership may win public support if their tail is seen to be wagging the Fianna Fáil dog for the greater good, but this may not be enough to pacify the majority that see only the Greens standing in the way of a new government. John Gormley’s personal satisfaction rating is down to 19 per cent, a drop of eight points and perhaps an indication of the direction in which the wind of public opinion is blowing.

Over the past year support for Fine Gael and Labour has surged. Compared with June 2008, Fine Gael has climbed 11 points (to 34 per cent) while Labour has jumped nine points (to 24 per cent). More significantly, the gains achieved in 2008 have been consolidated in 2009, laying the ground for the establishment of a new political order.

However, the gains achieved by Fine Gael and Labour may yet prove fragile and predictions of Fianna Fáil’s demise greatly premature.

It is clear from the Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll series that the public mood has turned against Fianna Fáil to the benefit of Fine Gael and Labour. What is not obvious is whether these voters are voting against Fianna Fáil or voting for Fine Gael and Labour. It is important to understand the motivations of voters in this regard because the strength of their attraction towards Fine Gael and Labour will determine how lasting their support will be if Fianna Fáil emerge from their current difficulties.

On the question of Fine Gael and Labour leadership, the opinion of voters is open to interpretation. While personal satisfaction ratings for Government party leaders have fallen significantly in this latest poll, ratings for Enda Kenny and Eamon Gilmore have declined only marginally — down two points to 29 per cent for Enda Kenny and down two points to 47 per cent for Eamon Gilmore.

In a crisis of political confidence, it may be unusual for a political leader to swim against the tide, but it may also be necessary for this to happen to build a relationship between party and voters that lasts.

Reflecting perhaps the public’s frustration with the established parties, today’s poll confirms a drift towards the left in Irish politics.

Support for Sinn Féin is up two points (to 10 per cent), with Independents/Others also adding two points (to 12 per cent). Support for Labour, Sinn Féin and Independents/Others combined is now higher than at any time since the Irish Times/TNS mrbi series of polls began in 1982.

Looking back over recent polls, what is striking is how much the attitudes of voters have changed, without any political response.

We seem to be paralysed, economically and politically. Unpopular decisions will have to be made to correct our public finances and the Government is damned if it doesn’t make these decisions while the Opposition parties are damned if they do.

Politicians may secretly favour the status quo. Voters do not. Three in every four voters (75 per cent) would like to see a change in government, including a significant minority (42 per cent) of Fianna Fáil supporters.

Damian Loscher is managing Director TNS mrbi