Summit could be disrupted because of antagonisms towards Syria

ON the eve of the "Arab peace summit" the prime mover of the gathering, Syria, finds itself between its southern and northern neighbours, Israel and Turkey, unsettled by bomb attacks at home and sharply criticised by another neighbour, Jordan.

Relations, already strained by Turkey's cutting of the flow of water from the Euphrates River into Syria, became tense in February when Turkey concluded agreements with Israel involving co operation in airforce training, intelligence gathering and counter insurgency. Syria and its Arab allies promptly protested, claiming the accords disrupted the regional balance of forces.

Last month there was a series of small bombings in Damascus and the port city of Latakia. Syrian intelligence blamed Turkish agents and several hundred Syrians of Turkish origin were reported to have been arrested.

This week the two sides were said to have massed tanks and troops along their common frontier. Yesterday, Ankara warned the Arab leaders meeting in Cairo against discussing Turkey's relationship with Israel and the water dispute with Syria, asserting that these were "internal" matters.

Jordan chose the day before the summit to link Damascus with the arrest of about 40 members of Syrian based Palestinian opposition groups. They are alleged to have planned to attack Israeli tourists visiting the kingdom.

Analysts give two reasons for Syria's uncomfortable situation.

First and foremost, President Hafez al Assad continues to insist that Israel should return the Golan, withdraw from southern Lebanon and allow the Palestinians self determination in the West Bank and Gaza as the Arab price for peace with the Jewish state.

In these demands Mr Assad has the firm backing of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the PLO. But Arab leaders who have rushed into relations with Israel are reluctant to attend the summit for fear of being told to suspend these relations if Israel stalls the peace process.

As Jordan's King Hussein, an old antagonist of Mr Assad, is the most prominent of the Arab leaders establishing close ties with Israel, it would appear he is determined to disrupt the summit and prevent the emergence of a common Arab strategy.

Second, although it has not directly engaged in terrorism since 1986, Syria has permitted several groups regarded by Israel and the US as "terrorist" to establish offices in Damascus.

To a certain extent Syria uses these groups to put pressure on its antagonists. These include 10 Palestinian opposition groups (inter alia, the Democratic and Popular Fronts, Hamas and Islamic Jihad) and the TurkishKurdish Workers' Party (PKK).

And Syria, the mandatory power in Lebanon, does nothing to prevent the Hizbullah movement from attacking Israeli soldiers in the south Lebanon occupation zone.

An authoritative informant in Beimt told The Irish Times that Mr Assad's firm commitment to the peace process had given Syria immunity" from politico-military pressure and unsettling intervention by its neighbours. But on April 26th Syria humiliated the US and Israel by imposing its own terms for ending Israel's "Grapes of Wrath" offensive in Lebanon.

A few days later the US Secretary of State, Mr Warren Christopher, said that Mr Assad's "mistrust" of Israel could jeopardise a settlement.

These words, the source said, signified that Syria no longer enjoyed the "protection of the peace process" and gave Ankara, an ally of the US, a "green light to explode a few bombs to pressurise Syria to expel Kurdish rebels."

Syria is determined to use the summit to demonstrate its commitment to the peace process. But it is feared that such pressure would be stepped up on Syria if the US were to attempt to tailor the peace process to suit the hardline policies of the Likud government in Israel.

Reuter adds: Syria yesterday again accused Turkey of creating tension with troop concentrations on the Syrian Turkish border and said it would raise the subject at the Arab summit in Cairo.