Dublin will have a new Lord Mayor when city councillors elect a successor to Fianna Fail's John Stafford on Monday night. Candidates already nominated are FF's Ita Green and Labour's Paddy Bourke. As things stand Bourke is favourite to move into the Mansion House for the next 11 months, a period covering the European and local elections in June, but probably not a general election.
All pretty straightforward, it would seem. Not so. There have been mighty battles within both parties to secure the nomination and there is some manoeuvring left in the contest yet. Green has been the FF nominee nomination five times before, and always, says a close observer of the scene, when the party has little chance of winning. This time she emerged out of the head-on clash between the Taoiseach's brother Noel Ahern and his Dail colleague, Ivor Callely. There was some angst that the Taoiseach's friend, Senator Tony Kett, was away when the party nomination was decided last week.
Bourke got the Labour nomination last Tuesday, with seven votes to Senator Joe Costello's three. There are 52 on the council; FF have 19 and as they are unlikely to get any more, Bourke should have it. But the Independents maintain it's their turn and haven't given up. If FF accepts it can't win it might still scupper Labour, which has 11 votes, by aligning with the four Independents, among them long-serving councillor Tony Gregory, and picking one of them out of a hat, as they want. FG has six votes, and while a deal with FF can't be ruled out in return for committee places, it is expected to stick with Labour. Almost any combination is possible.
Councillors, of course, know they are exercising a dying right. Minister for the Environment, Noel Dempsey, as part of the general overhaul of local government already in motion, intends barring Oireachtas members from councils and eventually letting the citizens of Dublin directly elect their own mayor. It was intended that next week's election would be the last by the city council itself, but councillors have had something to say about that, like how could such a mayor get policies through without a majority on the council? In any case there will be a whole new bunch elected next June.