Smart money favours May date for election

THE three Coalition leaders are expected to meet to discuss the date for the pre summer general election before the Dail resumes after the Easter recess in a fortnight.

Mr Bruton, Mr Spring and Mr De Rossa had planned to have such a discussion last weekend. Diary commitments intervened, however, as the Tanaiste left for Rome on Sunday. No firm decision has been made.

Notwithstanding this factual position, the Dail adjourned for the Easter recess yesterday with most Ministers and Ministers of State, and every TD from every side of the House, believing that the poll would take place in mid to late May.

The Taoiseach and the Tanaiste seemed to confirm this speculation on two separate occasions yesterday, managing to convince even the Fianna Fail leader, Mr Bertie Ahern, that they will not call a snap election today, next week or the week after that. The Dail will resume on April 8th.

Mr Bruton told the Dail, on the Order of Business, that he looked forward to seeing deputies on April 8th "and welcoming them back to an industrious summer term".

Mr Spring was far more revealing of internal Government thinking at a press conference to introduce his Department's strategy statement yesterday morning. Confirming that they had had preliminary discussions at leadership level on the election, he said that "we certainly have not focused or sharpened in relation to dates or anything like that as yet.

"What I think is important is that space is provided by having the election to allow time before the 15th and 16th June to have negotiations - or have it in the autumn," he said, in a key reference to the importance of the EU Council on the IGC in Amsterdam in mid June.

The reality is that four considerations will have to be taken into account by the Government leaders in determining the date of the general election the April conferences, the Dunnes Stores tribunal, priority legislation - and, finally, the October option which is still on the Cabinet table.

Taking the last, and least likely, scenario first, the Taoiseach Mr Bruton, and the Minister for Finance, Mr Quinn, are the formal proponents of the attractiveness of an election budget on October 29th.

Reports coming to Cabinet suggest that the economy is so buoyant that extra revenue of £500 million, at a minimum, will come in this year. Most members of the Government, however, believe that the momentum has reached such a fever pitch that there is, in effect, no October election option.

April will see a plethora of party conferences, starting with the Labour Party in Limerick University on April 11th the Fine Gael national dinner on April 17th to celebrate the 75th anniversary of the foundation of the State; the Fianna Fail Ardfheis in the RDS on April 18th and 19th; and the Democratic Left conference in Dun Laoghaire on April 25th and 26th.

There had been persistent speculation earlier this week that the Government would cut and run before the Fianna Fail Ardfheis to deny it a platform to launch its campaign. The view has been formed in the Coalition in recent days that this strategy would be too smart by half. It would dominate the first two days of the campaign. All the April conferences, which will cancel one another out are expected to be held.

The "smart aleck" theory is also being applied by Government sources in regard to Judge McCracken's tribunal on payments to politicians by Dunnes Stores. It will not determine the date of the election. The tribunal will resume on April 14th but most sources believe it will be two weeks later before oral hearings begin and, perhaps, three weeks of legal argument. It would be practically impossible for the Government to wait until Mr Ben Dunne has given evidence before calling a pre summer election.

The issue that will determine the date of the election is priority legislation. The Finance Bill, published yesterday, is due to be passed by both Houses of the Oireachtas on May 8th. The Government has now taken advice, however, that there is no constitutional requirement to have it passed. Key provisions could be implemented by financial resolution.

There are three Bills which the Government wants to pass before the election. The Local Government (Financial Provisions) Bill gives effect to the abolition of domestic water charges and the handing over of road taxation receipts to local authorities. The Electoral Bill sets limits for election spending. The Education Bill will fall, if this Government does not pass it.

The smart money in Government circles indicates that the election will be called around May 1st.

In the meantime, Fianna Fail is spending £250,000 on a month long billboard campaign, with one week gone and three weeks to go. It put the finishing touches to its election manifesto yesterday.