SARAJEVO LETTER:A debate over whether the mandate should be extended for a group of international judges has escalated into a dramatic political stand-off, writes GARRET TANKOSIC-KELLY
AS BOSNIA-HERZEGOVINA slides back into a quagmire, the naysayers at home and abroad would have us believe that Dr Raffi Gregorian, in particular, and his organisation, in general, are the problem.
Perhaps surprisingly, Gregorian is not some radical nationalist politician bent on self-enrichment while espousing the break-up of the state, but a seconded US civil servant, known to one and all as Raffi, who for the last number of years has been deputy head of the powerful Office of the High Representative (OHR) in Sarajevo.
The OHR was set up to oversee implementation of the civilian aspects of the 1995 Dayton Peace Agreement for Bosnia and is guided by an influential Peace Implementation Council steering body, including the resident ambassadors in Bosnia of G8 countries and the EU, plus Turkey.
In person, Gregorian is genial and warm. There is no doubt, also, that he is intelligent and articulate. But perhaps most importantly or worryingly – depending on who you are – Gregorian is unafraid to tell it like it is.
In a recent public debate, he said: “The incentives of the current political system [in Bosnia] are such that politicians are rewarded by maintaining the status quo . . . Politicians are more interested in dividing wealth than in creating it.”
He went on to skewer a broad range of players: “The kleptocratic, patronage-based political system of which I speak is nowhere mentioned or called for in Dayton, although the international community certainly shares responsibility for allowing such a system to survive.”
Gregorian’s nemesis, Milorad Dodik, the prime minister of Republika Srpska (the Serb part of Bosnia), has publicly responded by referring to Gregorian as a “failed diplomat [with] sick ambitions”.
Dodik has also declared his desire for the “eventual break-up of this country [Bosnia], which is not functioning anyway. This is no country at all and it serves no purpose.”
Given the quiescence of many diplomats, combined with the lack of a clear and consistent foreign policy in Bosnia, Dodik has become the most powerful political figure in the land, calling the shots and setting the agenda.
He has not hesitated to play to populist national sentiments. Recently sending one of Republika Sprska’s government jets to collect former Bosnian Serb president Biljana Plavsic after her release from prison, Dodik has linked himself inextricably in the public mind with a woman who has been convicted for crimes against humanity in Bosnia.
The other side of Dodik’s complex personality revolves around his personal fortune, which has been estimated at more than €250 million. A local non-governmental organisation (NGO) dealing with corruption alleges that Dodik misappropriated public funds and pocketed revenue from the privatisation of several state- owned enterprises.
Dodik accused the NGO of blackmail and racketeering, but he himself is currently the subject of an extensive investigation based on these charges.
The latest Gallup opinion poll shows that 90 per cent of Bosnians believe the government is not doing enough to tackle corruption.
The fight against corruption has become the frontline in a stand-off with the naysayers – those who feel it is time to close the OHR and let local politicians take control of the country’s destiny.
Nowhere has this been more apparent than in the debate over whether the mandate for a handful of international judges and prosecutors should be extended in Bosnia-Herzegovina’s state court and prosecutor’s office.
The key areas in which they have been assisting, and some would say providing “cover” for, local judges have been the hot topics of war crimes, corruption and organised crime.
Dodik’s Srpska parliament has passed a legally binding conclusion saying further impositions by the OHR of any decisions will mean its complete withdrawal from Bosnian state institutions and a referendum. Though it would not be the first time the former has happened, the threat of a referendum has given pause for thought to some and infuriated others.
Gregorian believes the purpose of the political onslaught is to destroy the rule of law. “The people who have voted against the measures come from parties whose leaders are either convicted, indicted or under investigation by state law enforcement,” he said recently.
He is not alone. In an open letter sent to the OHR, 30 organisations and individuals, including two former high representatives who served in Bosnia, essentially accuse the international community of being ready to bow to Dodik’s bullying tactics “for reasons of political convenience and expediency”.
On Monday, the anniversary of the signing of the Bosnia Peace Accord, under pressure from some of the most influential western countries, the OHR – in a move one imagines designed to appease Dodik – decided it would dispense with international judges and prosecutors for organised crime and corruption, but keep them for war crimes.
Before the announcement was even official, Dodik declared that he rejected any and all further impositions by the OHR and confirmed he was putting the issue of international judges and prosecutors to a referendum in Srpska.
The OHR has not only handed a victory to Dodik but the word “referendum” strikes fear into the heart of any Bosnian who witnessed the outbreak of hostilities in 1992 and it does not auger well for the future stability of the country.
As Gregorian so presciently said at a Helsinki Commission hearing, we should not play “into the hands of secessionists intent on abrogating Dayton and taking the region back to a very dark time”. “These people are betting on a weak response from the West, which they calculate is too busy with problems elsewhere,” he added. “I hope you will agree that it would be monstrous to allow this to happen.”