REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL candidates will face one another for the seventh time this year tonight in a debate focused on the economy.
Opinion polls show that the economy is the leading concern of Americans. Yet with Republican candidates proposing virtually the same orthodoxy of lower taxes, less regulation, less government spending and more oil exploration, attention will focus on the skill of contestants rather than substantive issues.
The key question of tonight’s debate in New Hampshire – and an eighth debate in Las Vegas on October 18th – is whether Texas governor Rick Perry can recover from recent setbacks to mount a serious challenge to Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts and the front-runner for the Republican nomination.
The Republican field is divided into two camps, with Mr Romney leading the establishment candidates and Mr Perry leading the more numerous Tea Party-backed social conservatives.
The last Perry-Romney clash over the economy, in a debate at the Reagan Library in California last month, amounted to a dispute over their respective records.
Mr Perry said the former Democratic governor of Massachusetts Michael Dukakis “created jobs three times faster than you did, Mitt”. Mr Romney said George W Bush and other previous Texas governors “created jobs at a faster rate than you did, governor.”
Mr Perry said his job-creating record as governor proved he would be the best president.
Critics point out that Texas holds a quarter of the country’s oil reserves, that an influx of immigrants from Mexico has stimulated the economy, that Mr Perry has gutted government regulation and created mainly low-paying “McJobs” in a state characterised by high poverty and low spending on health and education.
Mr Romney stole a march on his rivals by presenting his own economic plan in a 160-page book on September 6th. In addition to cutting corporate taxes and government spending, Mr Romney has made confronting China a major part of his platform.
The Romney campaign sent a snide e-mail to journalists last week, saying: “We happen to have obtained a copy of Governor Perry’s economic plan.” The 114-page booklet has a photograph of Mr Perry shooting a gun on the cover and is filled with blank pages headed by the letters N/A for “not available”.
Mr Perry is scheduled to make a major policy speech on jobs and energy in Pittsburgh on Friday.
The African-American Republican candidate Herman Cain, who ranks third in polls and is challenging Mr Perry for leadership of the Tea Party-backed faction, advocates what he calls a “999 plan” – to replace the US tax system with 9 per cent personal income tax, 9 per cent corporate tax and a 9 per cent national sales tax.
Mr Perry was the last Republican to enter the race, on August 13th. Repeating the pattern of earlier conservative candidates, he surged to the lead, attaining 29 per cent of Republican support, then fell to 17 per cent.
Damage from Mr Perry’s poor performance in three earlier debates has been compounded by at least four issues.
Senior citizens, particularly numerous in the early primary state of Florida, were upset when Mr Perry criticised social security benefits as a “Ponzi scheme”.
Immigration hawks dislike his decision as governor of Texas to provide higher education to illegal residents at state expense. Social conservatives were shocked that he signed a bill requiring the inoculation of 12-year-old girls against the human papilloma virus, which is sexually transmitted.
The Washington Postrevealed that Mr Perry entertained guests at a hunting camp that was identified by a sign saying "Niggerhead".
A study published yesterday meanwhile has driven home how dire the US economy is. The average income of Americans has fallen 9.8 per cent since the recession started in December 2007.
Most worrying, the decline has been more rapid over the past two years, when the recession was theoretically over. US household income fell 3.2 per cent during the recession from December 2007 until June 2009, then another 6.7 per cent – to an average $49,909 – between June 2009 and June 2011.