The referendum on Irish citizenship will be passed by a narrow margin, according an opinion poll published today.
The Sunday Business Post/Red C poll shows 55 per cent of the electorate will vote in favour of the Constitutional amendment. But worryingly for the Government, 67 per cent of respondents agree with Opposition parties which say the matter should not be decided on the June 11th date for local and European elections and instead be deferred until more public debate has taken place.
The Minster for Justice, Mr McDowell, proposed the amendment, particularly to address the purported problem of non-nationals straining maternity services in the State's hopsitals. However, statistics on the extent and cause of the problem are sketchy and 39 per cent of voters believe the referendum will, as Opposition parties contend, encourage racism.
While wavering public faith in the Government is demonstrated on the referendum issue, confidence in the Taoiseach could be undermined from within with the newspaper saying the poll findings show Fianna Fáil could lose up to 100 seats in the local elections.
With core support for the party at an historic low of 22 per cent; if the poll findings were converted into seats at the local elections; the party could lose up 25 per cent of its representation.
The findings also point to a potential loss of a seat in the European elections with the Dublin and Munster constituencies looking most vulnerable.
Smaller parties, Sinn Féin in particular, look set for gains at local authority level at Fianna Fáil's expense but Fine Gael are also likely haemorrhage. While leader, Mr Enda Kenny, has stablilised the party's decline, core support of 16 per cent will not be enough to see it match its impressive 1999 performance.
Labour, the Greens and particularly Sinn Féin look set to benefit, with Labour making modest gains on a near 2 per cent increase in support compared to 1999 figures. But Sinn Féin and the Greens, both of whom have worked hard at widening their support base at local level over recent years, are set for much bigger gains.
The poll shows the Greens up three per cent in core support since the last local elections and Sinn Féin up five.
The Progressive Democrats are showing a more modest one per cent increase and with Mr Tom Parlon's impressive organisation in Laois-Offaly a factor this time around, the party is sure for at least some increase in seats.
The slow creep of Independents in Irish politics shows little sign of abating. The poll shows their traditionally high return at local authority level is set to be more or less matched this time out.
The poll suggest the Euro elections are much more difficult to call with two seats lost under the new constituency revision brought about by the Nice Treaty. *
Circumstances could mean that Fianna Fáil will retain its representation with a reduced percentage of the vote while the Greens could lose two seats: one to Labour in the new East constituency and one in Dublin where Sinn Féin's Ms Mary Lou McDonald could give the party its first representative at EU level.
As ever, the silver lining for Fianna Fáil is the leader's popularity over his main rivals. When asked who they most trusted to lead the Government over the next five years, 30 per cent of respondents favoured Mr Ahern while Labour's Mr Pat Rabitte recorded a 26 per cent rating with Fine Gael's Mr Enda Kenny up two points on the last Sunday Business Postpoll at 21 per cent.
The poll is based on a sample 1,006 phone respondents eligible to vote and has a three per cent margin of error.
* The findings for the European Parliament elections were based on a reduced sample.