The Dail returns on Wednesday amid fears that we are heading into a winter of discontent. A busy parliamentary session between now and Christmas will be dominated by industrial relations, including the possible collapse of Partnership 2000 - which in the public sector has more than a year to run - and the opening of negotiations on a new deal between the social partners. Other items on the agenda are the December 1st budget, in which more tax cuts are expected; the publication of the National Development Plan, which will detail spending on infrastructure for the next six years; and membership of PfP, which should go ahead without the plebiscite Labour is seeking. There is also the possibility that the report of the Moriarty tribunal will be placed before the house, and there will be two by-elections - for the Dail in Dublin South Central at the end of October and for the Seanad later.
The never-ending problems of the North and abortion will demand attention from the sidelines, but neither are likely to reach the Dail. Likewise, fallout from the tribunals (Flood and Moriarty), the Ansbacher inquiry and the PAC could cause controversy - although the latter, which winds up its DIRT inquiry next month, is not expected to produce a report until the new year.
Partnership 2000 is the most crucial issue. There is alarming talk of the demise of the Celtic Tiger as the nurses strike next month, and the gardai and CIE drivers threaten similar action. Indeed, it is being said that for the first time in years we could see again the old government versus worker standoff which was such a feature of the last decade. The Government is adamant that it will not meet the nurses' demands because the Labour Court ruling is binding under Partnership 2000 and to give in would open the floodgates. "We must hold firm on the existing agreement. It will be difficult, but we have to be optimistic," said one source.
Such is the strength of feeling on the other side that speculation is growing that SIPTU may pull out of the deal a year early.