A "SEVERE health warning" should be attached to the live register figures of unemployment, according to a leading academic.
Prof Brendan Walsh, of the UCD economics department, who addressed the National Economic and Social Forum in Dublin yesterday, was commenting on the disparity between the unemployment figures from the live register and figures derived from the annual Labour Force Survey.
A recent survey by the Central Statistics Office revealed that more than half those on the live register were not technically unemployed under the terms of the International Labour Office (ILO), which derives its figures from the Labour Force Survey.
The Labour Force Survey is based on a series of questions about employment and job search asked in a specific week and produces two measures of unemployment, the ILO and the PES, or Principal Economic Status.
Over 21 per cent of those on the live register surveyed by the CSO were working, almost 30 per cent were "inactive" and a substantial number could not be traced, leading to allegations of widespread dole fraud and calls for reform of the social welfare system.
"I think the general impression of statisticians is that the live register is not a good register of unemployment, the reason being that it is heavily influenced by administrative considerations, and these change so frequently that they have a bearing on the numbers showing up on the live register," said Prof Walsh.
Since 1970 there have been 30 changes in the way the live register has been calculated and there has been a growing discrepancy between the live register figures and other measures of unemployment.
Since 1993, the discrepancy between the live register and the Labour Force Survey measure of unemployment has doubled for males and risen by 50 per cent for females. In 1996, the difference between the live register figures and the PES, which is more subjective than the ILO since it asks people to classify themselves, was about 90,000 people.
The live register, for example, might include individuals who were not actively-seeking work, or who were signing on part-time and legally working.
"The statisticians have been refining and correcting unemployment data, but the problem is that each month the live register figures come out and that gives a much higher unemployment rate," Dr Walsh said.
Mr George LeMaitre, of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, told the forum that the ILO measure was "universally considered the appropriate measure to use".
Mr Joe Larragy, of the National Economic and Social Council, defended the live register, arguing that it measures "legal" rather than theoretical unemployment, although he said the Labour Force Survey could be used to inform the way in which the live register was constructed. From next year, the Labour Force Survey will be conducted quarterly.