Preparations to move 1m people in critical state

KIVU was in the headlines before

KIVU was in the headlines before. Mark Brennock's predecessors, veteran journalists Ray Smith and Cathal O'Shannon, described it when our 32nd Battalion landed in Goma and Kindu, 36 years ago. Katanga - now Shaba Province - in the South required eight battalions, but it was mineral rich.

From what is known of Saturday's UN Security Council resolution, it seems that "preparations" for a humanitarian military operation are to be made by the UN and its member states. The Security Council member states, led by the permanent members, agreed to meet again in 10 days.

The preparations of the UN Secretary General normally include negotiating with troop contributing countries and getting the agreement of "host countries" to accept troops from those contributors. The cables fly; it takes time. Any non UN force will need similar negotiations - unless it decides to invade.

The African countries consider that delay too long. But Zaire and Rwanda are dragging their feet already, as are the Security Council permanent members. This is the reason for the recent proposals for "rapid reaction" or "stand by" forces. Ireland is taking up the UN proposal.

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Military staffs in UN headquarters and in countries likely to be involved will have been working on a contingency basis for weeks. Britain and France had troops in Rwanda two years ago, so much information is available. The UN HQ staff must calculate the numbers of troops required and the costs. A commander is recommended and a mandate formulated, all for Security Council approval.

The refugees will have to be found, fed, given water and escorted through security corridors within Zaire and onwards to Rwanda. Safe havens are to be set up - probably as initial assembly areas in Zaire, and then in Rwanda, as destinations and dispersal areas for people returning to their homes.

How to separate the Hutu Interhamwe killers from the innocent is the big question.

Some of the aid agencies, notably the International Committee of the Red Cross and Save the Children, were opposed to military intervention; the Red Cross changed its view when the power and armament of the Interhamwe became clear.

A poster carried by an Iraqi child in 1991 declared: "We don't need food, we need safety." But without safety and security, humanitarian efforts may easily become distorted, as happened in Zaire. This is not to denigrate humanitarian work.

How are 1,000,000 people to be moved over long and short distances? The most vulnerable move at the pace of women walking with children held by the hand or carried on their backs. Initially at least, vehicle transportation will probably have to be reserved for the injured, sick and pregnant.

From secure assembly areas in Zaire, truck convoys may move with strong military escorts who are mandated and prepared to use force against anyone who interferes. The laterite (crushed earth) roads will need maintenance for heavy transport in the rainy season which has now started. Trees overhang many roads, making air surveillance difficult. Hovering helicopters over convoys can be vulnerable to ground fire.

The vegetation provides cover for ambushes - and precludes deployment of mobile flank guards ahead of and beside the convoys. Vegetation and tree clearance may be necessary. Male refugees could do this but it means giving them machetes already associated with atrocities. Someone will probably suggest defoliation.

Tanks would churn up the roads. Escorts will need armoured cars. Infantry in personnel carriers and trucks may be required to clear ambushers, because defensive fire against invisible attackers may be absorbed by closely growing trees and hedges.

Signal troops, as well as road and vehicle maintenance personnel will obviously be necessary.

There must be secure halting points with sanitary facilities, and food and water for the longer distances. Very close inter working with the aid agencies will be essential, because they will have to live with the consequences of military action.

Armed refugees must be disarmed and listed - and, perhaps, separately moved. Serious problems will arise within Rwanda when people are taken back to home villages which may be reoccupied. The aid agencies will have to deal with these problems - while the military provide a secure environment. UN police will be needed.

A UN report last week showed that the arms embargo is not working. Large sums of money for arms purchases have been obtained by selling relief goods and from levies imposed by the Hutu militias on refugees working as local staff. This must be stopped - again a job for police.

A strong infantry presence will be needed at the assembly areas because disarming should be done there or nearby. Medical aid should be available for dehydration and under nourishment cases. The importance of participation by African states is self evident. The experience of aid, agencies will help to decide on the number and size of assembly areas.