Sinn Féin seeks a turnaround north and south

Good morning.

Buoyed by Sinn Féin’s victory in the Dublin Mid West byelection, Mary Lou McDonald told the weekly party meeting in Leinster House she believes the Stormont institutions can be re-established by Christmas.

An account of what she told the meeting - attended by TDs, senators and party staff - was given in a briefing afterward, an unusual move for Sinn Féin. Our account of what McDonald told the meeting earlier this week is here.

Fresh talks to re-establish the Stormont Assembly and Executive begin on December 16th, four days after the UK general election on December 12th, and Northern Ireland secretary Julian Smith has said an Assembly election in Northern Ireland will be called if the talks do not succeed by January 13th.

Miriam Lord: Poor Dara Murphy, poor Leo Varadkar and all the other victims in Fine Gael

---

Eoghan Murphy criticised by Fine Gael colleague at party meeting

---

Sipo unable to investigate Dara Murphy after resignation

---

Government survives (for now) after scraping through Dáil vote

---

Sinn Féin and the DUP have welcomed the talks, and McDonald’s comments this week are predictable enough. And yet, the sense among some in the party - and those in Leinster House who keep a close eye on Sinn Féin - is that it is serious about restoring Stormont.

After steering new Sinn Féin deputy Mark Ward to victory in his own Dublin Mid West constituency, Eoin Ó Broin said the party had reflected after its poor showing in the local and European elections earlier this year.

Ó Broin repeated a line heard from Sinn Féin representatives since those elections last May: the party is solution focused and has serious policies to tackle areas such as housing and health.

Those in rival parties, and some in Sinn Féin, say the lack of a functioning Assembly and Executive in Stormont features as an issue among voters who see McDonald and her senior TDs as being obstructionist.

Restoring Stormont is one of the main tasks facing Sinn Féin ahead of the general election if it is to build on the momentum of its byelection result and rebuild its reputation in the Republic.

The party’s focus will shift north of the Border for next week’s British general election, where Sinn Féin is hoping to increase its number of Westminster seats from seven to eight. Hopes for a gain are pinned on John Finucane in North Belfast, as long as the party can hold its existing seats elsewhere.

In the aftermath of the narrow victory for the Government in the motion of no confidence in Eoghan Murphy earlier this week and the resignation of Dara Murphy as a TD yesterday, furthering reducing Fine Gael’s Dáil numbers, the view the Irish general election could come sooner than expected has taken hold in Leinster House.

One potential scenario commonly discussed is that Sinn Féin tables a motion of no confidence in Simon Harris or the Government amid a trolley crisis in late January or early February.

Even with Fianna Fáil’s abstention, the Government could lose if the Independents who backed it on the Murphy motion - Noel Grealish, Denis Naughten and Michael Lowry - abandon it at the next time of asking.

One Fianna Fáiler mused that Sinn Féin’s description of itself as the real opposition in the Dáil to a Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil “coalition” would be furthered by being the party to bring down confidence and supply and the 32nd Dáil.

“That’s what I’d do if I was them,” the senior TD added.

Sinn Féin’s moves, north and south, will be keenly watched in the months ahead.

Denis Staunton’s UK election diary

It's a week to Election Day. After a two-day lull for the Nato summit, the party leaders are all back on the road today as the campaign enters its final week. Prime minister Boris Johnson last night plunged back into the campaign, promising a sweeping legislative programme during the first 100 days of a Conservative government. Read more here.

Best Reads

Miriam Lord on Dara Murphy and how "Fine Gael is a martyr to compo culture".

Pat Leahy reports that Sipo will be unable to investigate Murphy after he resigned from being a TD.

Bernard Durkan criticises Eoghan Murphy at a Fine Gael parliamentary party meeting.

On the op-ed pages, Newton Emerson says Stormont's last collapse is a warning of its next.

Playbook

Dáil

Minister for Rural Affairs Michael Ring is on oral PQs.

Leaders’ Questions is at noon, followed by questions on promised legislation and the weekly voting block.

The House will then hear statements on housing solutions and on Scouting Ireland.

A motion on a report from the Joint Committee on Education and Skills - examining school costs, school facilities and teaching principals - will be taken before the Dáil adjourns for the week.

Seanad

The Upper House will hear statements on local government funding, as well as statements on crime.

Committees

The PAC discusses the national children’s hospital.

Housing, Planning and Local Government discusses the Planning and Development (Amendment) Regulations 2018 and a report from the Expert Group on Traveller Accommodation with Minister of State Damien English.

Central Bank Governor Gabriel Makhlouf is before the Finance Committee.

Employment Affairs and Social Protection resumes a session on bogus self employment.

Mary Mitchell O’Connor, the Minister of State for Higher Education, is before the Education Committee to discuss the Universities Authorisation Order 2019.