Ripple effects of children’s hospital controversy will linger

Good morning.

The national children’s hospital is set to dominate the political agenda again this week, with Sinn Féin’s motion of no confidence in Minister for Health Simon Harris being taken tomorrow night.

The outcome of the vote is a foregone conclusion, since Fianna Fáil's abstention means Harris will survive. The numbers will be slightly tighter than may have been anticipated, with Clare TD Dr Michael Harty - who initially said he would abstain on the motion - now voting against, citing developments at University Hospital Limerick as the reason for his change of mind.

The confidence-and-supply agreement means the Government needs a majority of 57 votes. Fine Gael has 49 votes, and the addition of the Independent Alliance’s four TDs - as well as Katherine Zappone, Sean Canney, Noel Grealish and Michael Lowry - should see Harris over the line.

Children's hospital overrun would have happened regardless – report

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On our front page this morning, Paul Cullen reports a confidential HSE report ordered by the Department of Health last year said the cost overrun of the hospital would have materialised even if a contractor other than Bam had been selected to build the project.

The Cabinet was briefed about this as part of its deliberations on the national children’s hospital late last year.

Separately, Jennifer Bray and Jack Horgan-Jones report a confidentiality agreement was proposed by the former head of the hospital board in relation to aspects of its financing and construction.

Although Harris should sail through the Dáil motion - probably helped on his way by cheering and support from the Government benches - the political fallout from the hospital controversy will last much longer, and in many ways.

Sources at the top of Fianna Fáil insist Micheál Martin’s commitment to facilitate the passage of another budget still stands, but the children’s hospital has further curdled ill feeling within his party toward the confidence-and-supply deal.

All insist Brexit means an election must be avoided, but the main question is if Martin can see out his commitment or will have to give way to the wider feeling in his parliamentary party and rank-and-file membership if and when clarity is reached in the Brexit process.

The hospital controversy has also damaged relations between some of the most powerful figures in Government. Trust between Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Simon Harris, his Minister for Health, had never been in plentiful supply anyway.

Sources say Varadkar and Paschal Donohoe, the Minister for Finance, are furious with Harris’s handling of the children’s hospital issue. It was also noticeable in recent weeks that members of the Fine Gael parliamentary party were not enthusiastic about defending the Wicklow TD, who is still not a hugely popular figure among his Oireachtas colleagues.

And yet Harris successfully managed to tie both Varadkar and Donohoe into the issue, to provide him with some degree of political cover. The recent protest outside his house, with his wife and young baby inside, also saw sympathy sweep his way.

Even his detractors in Government acknowledge Harris’s cunning. The beginnings of an intra-Government briefing war - evident across the media in recent days - point to further tensions ahead.

Brexit trundles on

The Cabinet will today discuss the omnibus legislation that will be needed in the event of a no-deal Brexit, ahead of its expected publication later in the week.

In London, UK attorney general Geoffrey Cox - who has been leading British efforts to change the backstop - will make a speech outlining what he believes needs to be done to the insurance policy to avoid a hard border to ensure it can command the support of the House of Commons.

Again in Brussels yesterday, Simon Coveney warned it will not be possible to resolve the backstop issue with legally binding language outside the withdrawal agreement, as Paddy Smyth reports in our lead. Talks resumed in Brussels last night, Paddy adds, with little progress made.

The main drama yesterday, however, saw the breakaway of seven MPs from the Labour Party. Denis Staunton has a report and analysis here and here.

Best Reads

Fintan O'Toole says Brexit has turned the English love of eccentricity sour, with harmful eccentrics now to the fore.

In another Brexit piece, Guardian writer Nesrine Malek says the UK was due a reckoning, and that Brexit, although unfortunate, is the path to one.

Guy Hedgecoe marks the fifth birthday of Podemos, the Spanish leftist party once seen as the future but now facing a difficult general election.

Playbook

The Cabinet holds its weekly meeting this morning, and the no-deal Brexit omnibus plan is expected to be published afterwards.

Dáil

Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm, followed by the Order of Business and Taoiseach’s Questions.

Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection Regina Doherty is on ministerial questions.

A Government motion on Ireland’s participation “in a European Defence Agency Project - Military Search Capability Building” precedes the second stage of the Companies (Amendment) Bill 2019.

The Civil Registration Bill is also at second stage.

Fianna Fáil has a PMB that would partially exempt those in housing developments who pay management fees from the Local Property Tax.

Seanad

The Judicial Appointments Commission Bill is before the Upper House. Again.

The Personal Injuries Assessment Board (Amendment) Bill 2018 is at second stage.

Committees

Minister for Children Katherine Zappone briefs the Children’s Committee on how the Brexit omnibus Bill affects areas under her remit.

Minister for Communications Richard Bruton does the same at the Communications, Climate Action and Environment Committee.

The Agriculture Committee discusses the future of the beef sector with officials from the Department of Agriculture.

The Committee on Business, Enterprise and Innovation examines various EU legislative proposals, and has prelegislative scrutiny of the general scheme of the Companies (Corporate Enforcement Authority) Bill 2018 with representatives of the ODCE.