As the economy recovers, public satisfaction with the Government has risen to its highest point in four years and the pattern is most pronounced among farmers, upper income earners and the elderly, according to the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll. Reflecting regional job creation, satisfaction levels have grown by three points in Dublin but support there for Independents and Others – while declining – remains a dominant influence.
Along with an increase in approval for the Government's performance, support for Fine Gael jumped by four points to 28 per cent, its best showing in 18 months. Taoiseach Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating also recovered and he joined Tánaiste Joan Burton as the most popular party leader. At the same time, Labour Party support remained static at 7 per cent. That development will focus the attention of worried backbenchers on the outcome of the British elections, where the Conservatives were rewarded at the expense of their Liberal Democrat partners. Without a bounce in the coming months, Labour Party TDs could become cannon fodder in a hard-fought election campaign.
Micheál Martin will take limited comfort from figures that show a three-point rise in support for Fianna Fáil, to 20 per cent, over recent months. His own satisfaction rating grew by five points, placing him on a par with Gerry Adams. In spite of these developments, party support remains deep in the danger zone as it prepares to contest the Carlow/Kilkenny byelection. This is a must-win contest for the party in a region where its support remains within touching distance of both Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. A good result this week would stabilise his leadership. Recent gains made by Sinn Féin have evaporated and the party dropped three points to 21 per cent, placing it behind Fine Gael and marginally ahead of Fianna Fáil. The situation is, however, extremely fluid and the party remains in a strong position to deliver on its ambition to lead a future government.
The attention of Government strategists is likely to focus on the performance of a group referred to as Independents and Others. It includes the Green Party, Renua, the Socialist Party, People Before Profit and sundry Independents. Their supporters are generally motivated by local concerns, combined with a visceral distrust of the established parties. From a high point of 32 per cent last December, support for this group has fallen by eight points. Whether the slide in voting intentions was prompted by improving economic circumstances and Government promises of better times ahead may become apparent in the coming months. As of now, the Government parties can be expected to concentrate their efforts on selling the proposition that, having repaired the economy, they can be trusted to raise standards of living.