Voters in Tipperary South will today choose a new TD to replace the late Mr Michael Ferris, with party activists saying any one of three candidates could take the seat.

Polling begins at voting stations throughout the constituency at 8 a.m. and continues until 9 p.m. Some 53,733 people are entitled to vote, but a low turnout is expected, mirroring low turnouts in other recent by-elections.

The election count begins at 9 a.m. tomorrow in the Dr Pat O'Callaghan sports complex in Clonmel. A final result may not be announced until after 6 p.m., but party activists conducting tallies at the count may have a firm indication of the likely outcome by lunchtime tomorrow.

Second- and lower-preference votes will be crucial to the outcome, as the four main contenders are expected to be close together on the first count. Fianna Fail's Mr Barry O'Brien is likely to top the poll, but later counts are likely to see him overtaken by one of the other main candidates, either Labour's Mrs Ellen Ferris, Fine Gael's Senator Tom Hayes or Independent Mr Seamus Healy.

The order in which candidates are eliminated will determine the eventual winner, with both Labour and Fine Gael sources suggesting that if their candidate does not come fourth, they feel confident of victory.

Fine Gael and Labour each believes that if one of them is eliminated first, transfers may put the other ahead of Mr Healy. That in turn would lead to Mr Healy's elimination and his transfers, Fine Gael and Labour believe, would ensure which ever non-Fianna Fail candidate remains in the contest is elected.

Mr Healy is considered less likely than Senator Hayes or Mrs Ferris to attract transfers, so his supporters are hoping for a high enough first preference vote to ensure he stays ahead of the Fine Gael and Labour candidates. While Fianna Fail is confident of a strong first-count performance from Mr O'Brien, party sources were not confident yesterday that this would be enough to secure victory.