No self-doubt for Micheál Martin as he stays centred

The one question Micheál Martin was not asked during a long doorstep interview at the Fianna Fáil think-in in Carlow was about his mojo.

Unlike Enda Kenny, we all know Martin grabbed his back last February and has not let go of it since.

No party has skipped through the post-electoral landscape with such jauntiness and swagger as Fianna Fáil.

Martin practically beamed his way through the endless questions, radiating no self-doubt. No longer do we hear questions about his leadership. No longer do people muse about him being the first Fianna Fáil leader never to become taoiseach.

Martin made one mis-step during the interview ahead of his party’s two-day meeting but even that had a pep in it. “We are not in opposition,” he declared, before quickly correcting himself, “sorry, we are not in government.”

In a way, he was correct. Fianna Fáil is in a strange hybrid situation, neither hunter nor prey. Sure, it is not in government, but it's not really in opposition either. Its confidence and supply agreement with Fine Gael means it will support the Government on what is fundamental. That means the budget and other money issues, as well as what it identifies as key national interests.

But the situation is so unusual, it knew it was taking a punt. The only precedent in the Irish context was the "Tallaght strategy" set out by Fine Gael leader Alan Dukes in 1987 when he pledged not to oppose the economic policies of the minority Fianna Fáil government.

Dukes’s decision was constructive politically but destructive electorally. In marked contrast, Fianna Fáil seems to have suffered no adverse effects from this year’s agreement.

Having won an unexpected 44 seats in the election, it has since forged ahead of Fine Gael and Sinn Féin in the polls by perfecting a good cop/bad cop approach. It has backed up Fine Gael on the Apple tax issue, the budget and on abortion because they involve defending what it sees as the centre. It has also performed a big U-turn on water charges, and tabled a few populist motions, to show it can now flex its muscles.

Long grass

So where is Fianna Fáil? Despite all the recurring stuff about the party waiting in the long grass, it has no appetite for an election soon. There are a number of reasons for this. If Fianna Fáil were to pull down the Government, precedents suggest it could be perceived by voters as cynical.

And given the volatile nature of politics at present, it is quite likely a Martin government would need to rely on a similar confidence and supply arrangement with Fine Gael.

The import of Martin’s stand-up yesterday was his party will do nothing to hasten the end of the Coalition.

“We want realistic, centre-ground, responsible politics,” he said.

Five years ago, at Fianna Fáil’s think-in, one TD said the next general election in 2016 would be only a “modest staging post” and he spoke about a recovery taking 15 years. He was spectacularly wrong. It was a reminder of the fluidity of Irish politics and the fickleness of its electorate.