Irish Times poll: Leo does a Lazarus with ratings jump

Only last May we in The Irish Times were asking if Leo Varadkar’s slide in popularity was terminal. Now he gives a Lazarus performance with his approval ratings shooting up 15 points to 51 per cent.

His bold decision last week to “give it a Wirral” and meet Boris Johnson for a three-hour bilateral has paid dividends, at least at the time the poll sample was being surveyed between Friday and Sunday.

Given the mutterings coming out of Brussels yesterday, however, there may be a chance that what had broken through may now have fallen through.

We lead with the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll this morning, and it also shows a high approval rating for last week's budget, notwithstanding its absence of breaks for middle-earners, which form the core of Fine Gael's votes.

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Irish Times poll: Varadkar’s approval rating rises above 50%

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Varadkar’s poll bounce of 15 points restores popular appeal

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As political editor Pat Leahy reports, approval for the Government is also high at 42 per cent – an increase of 11 points.

Nonetheless, the upswing just doesn’t translate into a surge in support for Fine Gael. The party is at 29 per cent, which is respectable and four points to the good on Fianna Fáil, which is at 25 per cent.

However, when you look at the core votes of both parties (excluding undecideds), they are within two points of each other, neck-and-neck. Fianna Fáil is down marginally but not appreciably.

Why is there not clear water between both parties if Fine Gael is seen to be performing well? One possible explanation is Fianna Fáil is finding votes elsewhere. The Sinn Féin vote continues to slip (albeit only very slightly this time), and it is at 14 per cent.

The evidence of the local elections was that working-class votes in urban areas captured by Sinn Féin in recent years may be returning to Fianna Fáil.

The Greens’ rapid ascent continues. While Eamon Ryan threatens to populate rural areas with wolves and - even worse - shared-car schemes, urban voters continue to be attracted to the party. Support of 8 per cent is near the high water mark for the party, and although it tends not to win that vote when people go to the polls, it’s going to make substantial gains based on the latest figures.

How many times has Labour been at 6 per cent in polls? It’s a little stuck at the moment - the party needs to stand out more if its recovery is to be meaningful.

Independents still remain a big bloc, but support for the non-affiliated has declined. The same pattern affects the left-wing parties and groups, all of which will struggle if these poll results are replicated in an election.

Brexit: deal elusive as talks continue

Will there be a deal? Won’t there be a deal? Have we lost the will to live? Do we really care any more?

Following Brexit has become like a Lotto rollover: when you don’t win you buy another ticket because the prize has become even bigger. And even though you really know deep down you don’t have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning, you still fantasise on what you will do with the bonanza.

Anyway, the fact there’s a summit this week should put us out of our misery, for now.

As of this morning, the mercury on the “moodometer” has fallen with the Finnish prime minister Antti Rinne saying there was no time to find an agreement before Thursday. Simon Coveney also accepted yesterday talks might move into next week.

As Denis Staunton reports, Boris Johnson is still insisting Britain will leave the EU on October 31st.

Yesterday we had the queen’s speech, with all the centuries-old pomp, including the door being slammed in Black Rod’s face (to show the primacy of parliament).

As Staunton reports the queen’s speech was less conclusive in its language about leaving, saying it was the government’s “priority” to leave the EU on that date.

However, Johnson’s allies maintained that was just a use of language and the intention remained to leave on that date, deal or no deal.

It goes without saying the next 36 hours until late Wednesday night are crucial in determining if there will be something to put before the 27 leaders.

Best reads

Pat Leahy's analysis on the poll.

In Catalonia, there has been widespread anger at the really tough sentences handed out by the Spanish supreme court to the leaders of the failed bid for independence two years ago. Guy Hedgecoe reports.

In an oped piece, Alfred Bosch argues the long sentences comprise an historic error and could have very serious consequences.

TCD law lecturer Suryapratim Roy explores the question of whether climate change is a human right.

Fintan O'Toole says the Tories must grasp the profound stupidity of their approach to the North.

Playbook

The big event of the week is the European Council in Brussels from October 17th to 18th. We will be providing comprehensive coverage of this critical meeting, which could determine the form Brexit will take.

Dáil

Leaders’ Questions is at 2pm with Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed taking priority questions at 15.47pm. The row on beef prices - including yesterday’s unsavoury scenes outside the Department of Agriculture - will dominate the session.

Sinn Féin is bringing a Private Members’ motion calling for a living wage. Two Bills are being debated: the Parents’ Leave and Benefit Bill 2019 and the Health and Childcare Support Bill 2019.

Seanad

The Wildlife Amendment Bill 2016 is the main business for the upper chamber today.

Committees

A full schedule today. A special committee on issues for Travellers is examining Traveller health. Jim Daly, the Minister of State, will be speaking as will Senator Joan Freeman and representatives from a number of agencies.

The Housing Committee continues its pre-legislative scrutiny of the Land Development Agency Bill.