Government not out of the woods over children’s hospital

Good morning,

There’s a certain sense of relief evident among those who move in Government circles, with the belief the worst has passed in the national children’s hospital controversy.

But the Government is not out of the woods just yet.

Over the past two weeks, through the workings of some long and painful committee hearings and the drip-release of confidential documents, some key questions have been answered.

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The most politically toxic aspect was the who-knew-what-and-when question.

The Government at large found out the project was €450 million in the red in November 2018. We know now Minister for Health Simon Harris was told of a €191 million overrun in August of last year, as well as another potential €200 million that was disputed.

A month later he said, via a parliamentary question, the budget for the project was on track.

Mr Harris delivered a speedy apology for this in the Dáil yesterday.

Miriam Lord has the sketch here.

The second question was: how did this happen?

The Taoiseach gave some insight yesterday when he said the Government would be investigating the potential “low-balling” of tenders.

Another report emerged yesterday that had been commissioned by the National Paediatric Hospital Development Board (one of three boards, this one consisting of experts in the field).

The Mazars report, finalised in December 2018, pointed toward a lack of early warning systems about costs that were ballooning, issues with estimating the right costs from the beginning, and the need to organise the various governance structures so that it was “crystal clear” who was in charge of what.

The increase in construction costs and gaps in design have also been blamed.

Read more about the reasons here.

But there are two key questions that remain to be answered. Firstly, what will the final cost of the project be, beyond the hair-raising €1.7 billion figure?

Paschal Donohoe wasn’t shedding too much light on it when he was asked this very question by reporters yesterday.

He said, as it stands, the cost remains €1.7 billion. The Minister added he would be “extremely concerned” if that was to change.

But the Government has commissioned a “sensitivity analysis” to look at this exact issue. Exactly what the deadline is for that analysis - which will look at future potential increases because of inflation - is what TDs will want to know when they question Simon Harris at 6pm today.

Eighty minutes have been set aside for the Q&A, in which Opposition politicians will also want the Minister to elaborate on exactly what projects will suffer because of the overrun.

Once again, details were sketchy yesterday. Mr Donohoe didn’t outline exactly what projects will be delayed to find the €100 million in savings that are needed. “I am being as clear as I can at this point in time in 2019,” he said.

The Government will find itself under sustained pressure to reveal its hand circa 6pm.

Overheard in Brussels

Many Brexit commentators would agree that Theresa May’s latest ploy in the countdown to March 29th is to simply run down the clock.

She yesterday called on MPs to “hold their nerve” and come together behind an EU withdrawal deal that will deliver Brexit on time.

But tell that to Olly Robbins, the UK’s chief negotiator, who was overheard in a bar in Brussels saying that he expects a Brexit delay is likely and that the backstop is “a bridge” to a long-term trading relationship with the EU.

ITV correspondent Angus Walker said he overheard Robbins waxing lyrical about how MPs will be presented with a choice between backing a reworked Brexit deal in March or backing a delay to the UK withdrawal from the EU.

Questions abound around whether Robbins had, by accident, revealed Mrs May’s secret Brexit plan.

The interesting part that is likely to be raised in the Dáil today is the comments around the backstop.

In Mr Walker’s account, the chief negotiator said the backstop was conceived as a “bridge” and he “outlined a strategy to satisfy May’s backbenchers, saying the European Commission would need to agree the word ‘necessary’ in the Northern Ireland protocol is defined as ‘necessary subject to the future trade deal’.”

With only 44 days to go, it seems like we are learning more from snippets of conversations in bars than we are from Mrs May and the British government.

We’re not gleaning a whole lot from the Taoiseach either. Here’s what he said yesterday about extensions, and the wording of the agreement.

“On Article 50 being extended, I cannot say whether it will be extended or not. It really is up to the United Kingdom to make an application for an extension, should it so wish, but I do note that it is quite far behind in its plans, in particular its legislative plans, with regard to Brexit, much further behind than we are.

“I did not have any discussions on alternative wording with Prime Minister May.”

Nothing to see here, folks.

Best Reads

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Playbook

Dáil

Minister for Children Katherine Zappone will take questions on her brief at 10.30am.

Leader’s Questions will be taken at noon.

Questions on promised legislation will begin at 1.02pm.

Taoiseach’s questions will be taken at 1.32pm.

Topical Issues will be taken at 3.17pm.

Solidarity, People Before Profit will table a motion on nurses’ pay in light of the recent suspension of the strikes. The motion is scheduled to be taken at 4.05pm.

Minister for Health Simon Harris will take questions on the national children’s hospital at 6.05pm.

The Dáil adjourns at 11.15pm.

Seanad

Commencement matters will be taken at 10.30am.

The Criminal Law Sexual Offences Amendment Bill will be discussed at 12.45pm.

At 4.30pm, there will be statements on the loneliness report from the Loneliness Taskforce.

The Seanad adjourns at 8pm.

Committees

The Oireachtas Health Committee will hear from the HSE on its progress around addressing the CervicalCheck scandal at 9am.

The Justice Committee will hear from Garda commissioner Drew Harris at 9am on the youth-referral system after serious concerns were raised previously.

Tusla will appear before the Oireachtas children’s committee at 9.30am on the recruitment and retention of social workers.