General election poll of polls: has FG’s momentum stalled?
Party marginally declining since December as overall picture remains generally unchanged
Has Fine Gael’s momentum stalled? The latest update to Irish Polling Indicator poll of polls seems to suggest that Fine Gael may be losing some of its zip.
The results, which include the Red C Research poll for the Sunday Business Post, published on Sunday, leaves the overall picture much the same: Fine Gael is still the clear leader, with 28.5 per cent; Labour is on 7.5 per cent, Fianna Fáil 19 per cent and Sinn Fein 19.5 per cent. Independent and Others are on 23.5 per cent.
However, it seems increasingly clear that Fine Gael has lost the momentum it gained in the second part of 2015.
The party peaked in December and has been declining a little bit since then (although this is still within the uncertainty margin).
Sinn Féin is up three points in the poll, but this does not greatly impact upon the polling average.
The party’s gain in might be true, but it could also be random noise; it’s too early to tell.
The Irish Polling Indicator combines all Irish opinion polls for the Dáil into one estimate of public support for the parties.
You can read more about the poll of polls and methodology in an introductory article by Dr Tom Louwerse of Irish Polling Indicator