Fianna Fáil must resist coalition speculation, ardfheis told

Fianna Fáil has to resist getting sucked into speculation about possible coalition arrangements after the election as it will play into the hands of its opponents, a leading political scientist has told the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis.

Prof Tim Bale said that in Britain the media coverage of last year's election campaign was dominated by the horse race and did not deal with the serious issues facing the country.

“It’s going to be very hard to avoid questions about coalition formation because media will ask those questions. It is vitally important to focus on issues and not on coalitionology,” he said.

Prof Bale is the author of The Conservative Party: From Thatcher to Cameron and a leading authority on election strategy.

Four years ago he addressed the Fianna Fáil Ardfheis and outlined 12 steps for recovery for parties that had suffered debilitating defeats in an election.

He returned to its 77th ardfheis in Citywest on Saturday to give an assessment on how the party has fared on its road to recovery.

“Fianna Fáil is off life support,” he said before adding that it would not sprint to an unexpected victory.

He said the next election after 2016 would be the crucial one for Fianna Fáil. He said it might not take a full five years for it to happen.

He said the party must forge an independent future. He said that coalitions with either Fine Gael or Sinn Féin would damage its recovery.

“A grand coalition with Fine Gael after the general election would be a godsend for Sinn Féin. It would be exactly what Sinn Féin would like you to do.”

He said the party had to be realistic in its expectations.

“Realistically, pushing the gap down from 19 per cent [the difference in the 2011 election] with Fine Gael to single digits would be a win.

“Realistically ensuring Sinn Féin remains in third place should be a win.”

Prof Bale said in Britain the Conservative Party’s main thrust of attack was questioning Ed Miliband’s authority and leadership credentials over many months. It succeeded in tapping into concerns among voters about his perceived weakness.

He said he does not think Fine Gael would achieve the same success if it pursued that strategy against Micheál Martin.