Covid-19: Tiny steps forward, couple of steps back

Good morning.

Many tiny steps forward and then a couple of steps back that could mark a whole new departure for Covid in Ireland.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin was back at his podium on Tuesday night for one of the downbeat addresses to the nation. In truth, we’ve been through so many of these speeches at this stage that they become a bit interchangeable.

However, this one marks a potential watershed moment in Ireland’s 2021 pandemic story for one simple reason: it marks us going backwards.

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The reverse on work-from-home advice (a “pause”, the Taoiseach said) and the surprise announcement that the hospitality sector must close nightly from midnight on Thursday don’t plunge us back into lockdown – far from it, they bring us in line with what many European countries are doing to control the spread of the disease.

What they do, however, is show that the path out of Covid, even with vaccines, isn’t without an occasional sharp turn. It’s also noteworthy that the pace is being set here not by Government or Nphet but seemingly by the HSE, whose warnings became too loud to ignore.

There’s also a lot more uncertainty in the weeks ahead. Some of the debates from the spring and summer will return – how fast can we go on vaccinations? What will the advice from Niac be? Should certain groups be prioritised?

These are familiar questions, but there’s new uncertainty too. How long will the Government give to see if these changes have an effect, for example? The word around Government Buildings yesterday was three weeks, but that’s not set in stone. Given the fact that a lot of pain in the hospital system is dialled in, will the Government hold its nerve as ICU and hospitalisation figures continue to arc upwards?

How will the Government measure if people are buying in to the effort to cut their contacts, and what would trigger an escalation in its response?

There is a hope in Government that it will be able to avoid introducing harsher restrictions, but there is a deeper seam of acceptance that it may become unavoidable.

And just what would more restrictions look like? Losing something big, like closing a sector or curtailing home visits, would be a major headache and grist to the mill for the Opposition.

But the reality is that restrictions will remain on the table for many weeks to come, such is the force of infection and the associated impact on our healthcare system.

The Coalition is now in an incredibly delicate period that will take in Christmas and the blend of restrictions to be decided on. Just weeks after it seemed Covid may be entering an endgame, the challenges are as real and complex as ever.

Front page

Pat Leahy, Paul Cullen and Jennifer Bray cover off the main Covid developments in our lead.

And Kitty Holland and Jen detail how adoptees have vowed to fight for changes to the Government's new €800 million Mother & Baby Homes redress scheme.

The front page line-up is completed by Mark Hilliard, whose curious story shows how a British weapons maker has become a housing investor in Dublin.

Best Reads

"By now it plays out as theatre" - Paul Cullen's analysis of the latest Covid situation is here.

Pat Leahy's view of the political danger for the Coalition is here.

Jennifer Bray parses the Mother & Baby Homes payment scheme.

Playbook

Action in the Dáil starts with topical issues shortly after 9am, followed at 10am with Private Members’ business, where the Labour Party’s Duncan Smith will introduce a Bill promoting the use of markings on products indicating their carbon footprint.

Leaders’ Questions with Sinn Féin, Labour and the Regional Group is at midday, before questions on promised legislation at 12.34pm. Taoiseach’s Questions is just after 1pm, before Government Business covers off second stage on the Land and Conveyancing Law Reform Bill, the Road Traffic and Roads Bill, and the Sex Offenders (Amendment) Bill.

Statements on the Air Accident Investigation Unit’s final report into the crash of Rescue 116 is slated for 6.35pm. The committee and remaining stages of the Child and Family Agency (Amendment) Bill 2021 will be taken at 9pm, before weekly divisions at 9.30pm.

The Seanad sits with commencement matters at 2.30pm, and the report and final stages of the Land and Conveyancing Law Reform Bill will be taken at 5pm, before the committee stage of the Planning and Development (Amendment) (Large-scale Residential Development) Bill 2021 at 6.45pm.

Over at the committees, the social protection committee will resume its examination of the report of the pensions committee at 9.30am, while at the same time, the enterprise committee will hear from departmental officials and the Irish Small and Medium Entreprises organisation on the impact of Covid-19 for business.

The health committee will also conduct pre-legislative scrutiny of the Tobacco and Nicotine Inhaling Products Bill 2019, with the Irish Heart Foundation and the Irish Cancer Society – also at 9.30am. At 11.30am, Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe continues with the consideration of the finance Bill 2021 at the finance committee.

The arts and media committee will hear from community and independent broadcasters on challenges arising from Covid, and from representative groups on a safe and respectful working environment in the arts – at 1.30pm and 3pm, respectively.

Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications Eamon Ryan continues in front of the transport and communications committee on the NDP at 1.30pm, before the committee on budgetary oversight hears from the ESRI on inflation.

The justice committee is at 5.30pm – conducting pre-legislative scrutiny of hate crime legislation with officials, academics and advocacy groups – and the agriculture committee hears from Teagasc and others on carbon sequesterisation in the agriculture sector.