Capital gains for Sinn Féin in their best Irish Times poll result ever

Today’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll shows that Sinn Féin is the most popular party in the State with 25 per cent of voter preferences, an increase of four points since our first campaign poll two weeks ago and the highest level achieved by the party since tracking of their support began in 2002.

Fianna Fáil follow closely on 23 per cent (down two points), with Fine Gael in third place on 20 per cent (down three points).

The increase in support for Sinn Féin is largely driven by voters aged 35-49 and Dublin voters

Support for the Green Party is unchanged at 8 per cent, with support for the Labour Party declining marginally (by one point) to 4 per cent. First preference voting intention for Independents/Others has improved by two points, to 20 per cent.

After leaders’ debate

Fieldwork for this latest poll took place between Thursday and Saturday of last week, with interviewing undertaken both before and after the televised debate between seven party leaders on Virgin Media One.

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Our poll was carried out face-to-face, in-home, among a nationally representative sample of 1,200 adults aged 18+, covering 120 sampling points across all constituencies in the Republic of Ireland.

The increase in support for Sinn Féin (up four points to 25 per cent) is largely driven by voters aged 35-49 (up 11 points to 30 per cent) and Dublin voters (up 10 points to 24 per cent). The surge in Dublin support means that Sinn Féin is now the most popular party in the county, three points ahead of Fine Gael.

Sinn Féin is also the most popular party in the Rest of Leinster (on 31 per cent), a result which places the party considerably ahead of both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in the region (both on 21 per cent). Today's poll shows support for Sinn Féin is highest among working-class voters at 34 per cent (up by four points).

Sustained loses

While Fianna Fáil, on 23 per cent, is within touching distance of Sinn Féin, the party has sustained losses among male voters (down six points to 22 per cent), working-class voters (down six points per cent to 20 per cent) and Dublin voters (down four points to 16 per cent). However, Fianna Fáil remain the most popular party among the voters aged 50 or over (on 29 per cent), voters in Connacht/Ulster (on 32 per cent) and farmers (on 43 per cent).

Among middle-class voters the Green Party enjoys 13 per cent support and may have benefitted from Fine Gael's decline among this cohort

Fine Gael finds itself in third place in today’s poll, with support falling three points to 20 per cent. The most significant decline in preference for the party was recorded among 35-49 year olds (from 29 per cent to 18 per cent). Support for Fine Gael among its core middle-class voters has dropped a further four points to 22 per cent. In today’s poll there is no demographic grouping among which Fine Gael is the most popular party.

Nationally, the Green Party is on 8 per cent, but registers as high as 16 per cent in Dublin. Among middle-class voters the Green Party enjoys 13 per cent support and may have benefitted from Fine Gael’s decline among this cohort.

Independents/Others are now level with Fine Gael on 20 per cent.

This latest poll was taken with one week to go before polling day. A week is a long time in politics, especially when the final televised debate is yet to be held. Regardless of the outcome, we can say with some certainty that there is a mood for change in the country which the next Government, irrespective of how it is constituted, will need to address.

Aisling Corcoran is a director of Ipsos/MRBI