Budget 2020: no drama in Dáil as thoughts turn to election

T’was the day after the budget and all was . . . pretty much the same, actually.

The main difference between today and yesterday is that a pack of cigarettes is now 50 cent more expensive, and the carbon tax for auto fuels has increased by less than two cent per litre.

The normal budget-day scene looks something like this: the landing area outside the Dáil chamber is packed with Ministers, TDs, and ear-wigging journalists. The press gallery that looks down onto the chamber is full to the brim, as is the room itself. This year, however, there were plenty of empty seats as the budget was delivered with zero fanfare.

Now that the dust has settled, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar and Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin will give their take on the state of the country's finances this afternoon. Keep an eye on irishtimes.com for that.

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Full text of Paschal Donohoe’s Budget 2020 speech

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The dynamic between the two party leaders will be interesting to watch given Budget 2020 was most likely the last one to be brokered as part of the current confidence-and-supply arrangement.

“On behalf of everybody in this House, I thank the Lord this is the last budget of this Government. We are tinkering towards the end and the end of the arrangement that we have had in place between Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil. This budget demonstrates that this Government is politically impotent and has been sterilised to inaction” - so said Labour’s Alan Kelly yesterday. Many politicians (and indeed their staff) privately agree.

There is a feeling, Brexit aside, the show has run its course and that the next big political event will be a general election. Many TDs are speculating about a November election date if a Brexit extension is agreed, as this grants some political breathing space. This is particularly true if the extension is a lengthy one.

There has been no major drama in this budget, and it seems doubtful there will be today. Almost everything had been flagged , and the Government can do very little to rock the boat.

It was and wasn’t an election budget: There were no big giveaways reminiscent of the past, but if you consider the aim for Fine Gael was to reclaim its image of fiscal prudence - especially in light of the higher costs of the national children’s hospital and broadband plan - it all makes a bit more sense.

The fact is, however, many members of Dáil Éireann are aware the important events are taking place elsewhere.

Back to Brexit (yes, again!)

In the midst of all the budget non-drama, the Taoiseach last night had a phone call with British prime minister Boris Johnson. The two plan to meet tomorrow or Friday. This is where the political action will be at over the next few hours.

On the face of it, the fact the leaders are willing to have a meeting would indicate there is still hope for a deal.

That is until we look at the Taoiseach’s comments on RTÉ News last night. He said: that “essentially what the UK has done is repudiated the deal we negotiated in good faith with prime minister May’s government . . . and have sort of put half of that back on the table and are saying that’s a concession”.

“Of course it isn’t really.”

Varadkar and Johnson spoke for about 45 minutes by telephone, and afterward a Government spokesman in Dublin said both sides “reiterated their desire to reach a Brexit deal”.

But Mr Varadkar said later:” I think it’s going to be very difficult to secure an agreement by next week quite frankly.”

Here's the latest on that.

Best Reads

Welcome to the House of Funds: Miriam Lord's sketch, resplendent with unexpected detail around how Mr Varadkar and Paschal Donohoe giggled at pictures of a "muscular, bare-chested man by a pool" during budget speeches. Spoiler: it was Eoghan Murphy. Double spoiler: not that Eoghan Murphy.

In his analysis, Cliff Taylor says, given the state of the exchequer finances, resisting tax cuts and welfare increases will have been "intensely frustrating" for the Government.

Mr Donohoe has delivered a "cautious budget",says Pat Leahy, who also points out health spending will now grow to €18.3 billion next year, its highest level.

Some lucky soul in the UK has woken up to life-changing news.

Playbook

Dáil

Minister for Business Heather Humphreys takes parliamentary questions at 10am.

Leader’s Questions are up at 11:30am.

At 12:18pm there will be leaders’ statements on the budget.

And so it goes until around 11pm.

Seanad

It’s a busy day in the Seanad today.

Proceedings kick off at 10:30am, followed by the order of business at 11:30am.

At 12.45pm, senators will discuss the Health and Childcare Support (Miscellaneous Provisions) Bill 2019 before discussing the Parent’s Leave and Benefits Bill 2019 at 2pm.

At, 3:30pm the Social Welfare Bill 2019 will go through report and final stages before Private Members’ Business at 6:30pm.

This is the Free Education Bill 2018 from Senators Aodháin Ó Riordáin, Ivana Bacik, Kevin Humphreys amd Gerald Nash. This Bill contains proposals for a ban on so-called voluntary contributions in schools.

At 8:30pm, the Seanad adjourns.

Committees

At 9am, the Joint Committee on Justice and Equality will continue its hearings into harassment and harmful communications and will hear from Facebook, Twitter and Google.

Also at 9am, the Joint Committee on Health will be having a hearing looking at workforce planning in the Irish health sector and will hear from representatives from the Medical Council.

The Joint Committee on Children and Youth Affairs meets a 10am to continue hearings on youth mental health and will speak with the National Youth Council of Ireland and the National Office for Suicide Prevention Representatives. Representatives from SpunOut.ie will also be present.

The Special Select Seanad Committee on the Withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union meets at 2pm, as does the Joint Committee on Climate Action. The latter will look at the impact of fracked gas on the climate and its impact on Irelands climate goals.