Abortion vote: The result of referendum is no foregone conclusion

Inside Politics: The last week of campaigning will be intense and decisive

It’s an opinion poll day. Today The Irish Times publishes its last opinion poll of the campaign with just over a week to go. The results confirm what we all expected: the gap between the Yes and No sides is closing. The result of the referendum - in which the Yes side has consistently held a strong lead - is no foregone conclusion. But based on today’s numbers, it is considerably more likely that the Yes side will win. That is by no means certain though - the contest is still very much alive.

Excluding undecideds and those unlikely to vote, the Yes side leads by 58 per cent to 42 per cent - a lead of 16 points, pretty hefty in the week before polling. But in the last poll, taken in mid-April had the lead at 26 points. So the Yes lead has tumbled a bit. But if the No side is to change the trajectory of the campaign, the Yes lead will have to tumble a lot further and a lot quicker. That is possible, but it is not likely.

The Irish Times
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