A poll has found that six in 10 voters would not consider voting for her and that she would lose badly to Obama, write DAN BALZand JON COHEN
SARAH Palin has played a prominent role in defining Republican Party politics this year but still faces sizable obstacles if she decides to run for the presidency in 2012, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.
Six in 10 voters say they would not even consider voting for the former Alaska governor if she launches a White House bid, and she loses badly to President Barack Obama in a hypothetical 2012 general election test.
Despite her high profile, amplified this autumn by her campaign appearances and endorsements and her new reality TV programme, Sarah Palin's Alaska, Mrs Palin has not made demonstrable progress in overcoming opposition to her possible candidacy. If anything, she has slipped over the past year.
A slim 8 per cent of all registered voters say they would definitely vote for Mrs Palin for president, while 31 per cent say they would consider doing so. Fully 60 per cent say they definitely would not. Among all US voters, 59 per cent say they would not vote for her, up from 53 per cent in November 2009.
Even among Republicans, Mrs Palin has detractors, with 29 per cent saying they would definitely not back her candidacy. Her highest support comes from Republican women and conservative Republicans. Even so, only about one in five in each group say they would certainly support her presidential bid.
Neither does Mrs Palin enjoy wide support among independents: 62 per cent say they definitely would not vote for her. Among moderates, 66 per cent write-off her prospective candidacy.
In a hypothetical head-to-head general election battle against Mr Obama, the president prevails by 13 percentage points over Mrs Palin among registered voters, 53 to 40 per cent. Mrs Palin draws 78 per cent of Republicans in that test, while Mr Obama enjoys support from 89 per cent of Democrats. Independents break widely – 56 per cent to 35 per cent – for the incumbent.
Still, the survey shows limits to Mr Obama’s appeal. More than four in 10 voters, or 44 per cent, say they would not even consider voting for him in 2012, with about one in four definitively behind him.
Among independents, 40 per cent say they would not vote for him, 36 per cent say they would consider it and 21 per cent say they would certainly back him.
The survey also measured the potential appeal of New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg as an independent candidate for the presidency in 2012.
While just 2 per cent of registered voters say they would definitely support him, another 45 per cent said they would think about it; 43 per cent say they would definitely not vote for him.
In a hypothetical three-way ballot test, Mr Bloomberg draws about a fifth of the vote (18 per cent), but does not alter the likely outcome. Mr Obama prevails easily in such a competition, with 46 per cent of registered voters supporting him. Mrs Palin runs second with 32 per cent.
Mr Bloomberg’s highest levels of support come from independents and young voters, although Mr Obama far outpaces him in both groups.
He also draws 25 per cent of the vote from those who disapprove of Mr Obama’s handling of the presidency, with Mrs Palin taking almost six in 10.