The options for Gen de Chastelain and the British and Irish governments on the issue of paramilitary weapons appear to be narrowing, with only a week left before the deadline for the latest report of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning.
Senior political and official sources believe an immediate priority following the British government's response to the Patten report is to save Mr David Trimble from his own hardliners. There is at the same time considerable reluctance to suspend the Executive and other new institutions, which are perceived to be working well and "bedding down" even better than expected.
The general is thought likely to hold a meeting with an IRA representative this week. This would be the final discussion before delivering the report.
Senior republican sources indicate very strongly that there will be no resolution of the weapons issue until the new institutions have been functioning successfully for some time. There is now a widespread belief that, whatever else the general's report may contain, he will not be in a position to state that decommissioning has occurred.
In his previous report, the general said "the commission is prepared, if necessary, to state that actual decommissioning is to start within a specified period". While there is a possibility that he could set out his own timetable for the achievement of total decommissioning by May, it was not clear how this would assist Mr Trimble, although it would certainly arouse adverse reaction from the republican side.
If the general were able to announce that the IRA had agreed the modalities (i.e. methods and procedures) of decommissioning, this would be seen as a step in the right direction. But as the republican movement believes Mr Trimble has in effect delivered an ultimatum on weapons, an agreement on modalities may prove difficult to secure at this stage.
There have been suggestions that if the general were to produce a report that was negative both in content and tone, the suspension of devolution and the resumption of direct rule would automatically follow.
Contingency plans are believed to be in place for such an eventuality. The parties would go into review and, assuming the review process was successful, Mr Trimble would then resume his post as First Minister without having to submit to an Assembly vote requiring a majority of both unionists and nationalists. The UUP leader would not secure a majority of unionist members.
A review is also seen as a method of relieving the pressure on Mr Trimble inside his party and ensuring that he survives the planned February 12th meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council.
Despite considerable gloom in official circles, independent observers find it difficult to envisage the general bringing the institutions down in a crash-landing, although he will obviously have to preserve his credibility by reporting the factual position on decommissioning.
Some consolation is being derived from the belief that the discussions between Gen de Chastelain and the IRA must, in logic, be considering some positive move or initiative. Senior figures were hopeful that, even in the limited time that remains, a compromise solution can be found.