A leading bank claimed today that the recession is easing but warned the North's recovery will lag behind economic growth in Britain.
Ulster Bank economist Richard Ramsey said key indicators suggest the worst of the downturn is over, but warned that major obstacles lie ahead.
He claimed the most serious phase of the house-building downturn had passed and the rate of job losses had eased, but other factors which had boosted the region’s economy, including positive spin-offs from the Celtic Tiger, were now gone.
"Currently, the global, UK and Northern Ireland economies are seeing evidence of an easing of the recession. We expect the local and UK economies to return to growth next year. But in many respects, returning to growth is the easy part," he wrote in Ulster Bank's latest Quarterly Economic Review.
“The biggest challenge is to recover the significant amount of output lost during the recession.
“Next year, our prediction is for the local economy to grow by around 1 per cent, compared to around 1.4% for the UK as a whole," he said.
“Beyond that, it is our view that Northern Ireland’s sustainable growth rate will be 2 per cent per annum on average, which we expect to be below the UK average.”
New figures released yesterday showed unemployment in Northern Ireland had broken through the symbolic 50,000 mark after a rise of 1,500 in the claimant count.
The number of people claiming unemployment benefits stood at 51,000 in July, up 23,900 (88.2 per cent) on the year.
PA