Zimbabwe: In the second of two articles from Zimbabwe, Aoife Kavanaghlooks at problems facing the country's divided opposition movement.
On the face of it, things look good for Zimbabwe's opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). Three months away from scheduled presidential elections next year, Robert Mugabe's government has failed miserably to stem the country's downward economic spiral.
Voters don't usually support a party that cannot even guarantee them water or electricity, nor is doubling the price of food every few months the best way to curry favour with a population in pre-election mode.
And yet despite all this, the MDC is weaker now than it has been since its foundation back in 1999.
"Zanu is strong by default," says veteran Zimbabwean journalist and commentator Sydney Masumve, referring to president Mugabe's ruling party, Zanu-PF.
Masumve works with the International Crisis Group in Johannesburg, a think tank specialising in conflict resolution. "While Zanu are not in a strong position, they are buoyed by the fact that the opposition is paralysed."
The fact that the MDC is so divided is to some extent the result of Mugabe's ruthless manipulation of his rivals, but it is also due to protracted infighting within the party itself.
In 2005 the MDC split into two bitterly divided factions, a split that has become even more entrenched since then.
Morgan Tsvangirai was voted in as the first president of the MDC eight years ago, and he remains on as leader of the party and head of one faction.
He paid dearly for his opposition to Mugabe's rule last March, when he was arrested, detained and savagely beaten by a commando unit at an army barracks in Harare.
En route to an interview with Tsvangirai in the city last week, his security men explained that, while his movements, telephones and e-mails are all regularly monitored, it was a good time to meet with their boss. "The heat is off," the driver explained as we approached MDC headquarters. "Right now, the CIO are taking a holiday," he said, referring to the Central Intelligence Organisation - Mugabe's much-feared secret police force.
Tsvangirai doesn't accept that the ruling party's likely victory in next year's elections has anything to do with the fact that the opposition is in disarray.
"That we are divided does not make us irrelevant. We were united in 2000 and Mugabe stole the election," he argues, "We were united in 2002 and Mugabe, again, stole the election. So it's not about the opposition, it's about the conditions for elections."
At best, Tsvangirai is viewed as a charismatic leader who, until recently at least, did have genuine support, particularly in traditional opposition strongholds - mostly the urban areas.
At worst, he is accused of driving divisions within the party because he will not tolerate challenges to his leadership.
Claims that infiltration of the MDC by the secret police, the CIO, have helped stoke divisions within the party, are well founded, but the opposition is also its own worst enemy.
Individuals on both sides of the divide have failed to put their differences aside in order to face down the government, and it is reported that their failure to do so is driven by disagreements over who will get which government portfolio if the party ever does come to power.
As part of the the so-called "quiet diplomacy" being pursued by South African president Thabo Mbeki, talks are taking place now between Zanu-PF and the MDC. They are being facilitated by SADC (Southern African Development Community) and are aimed at constitutional and electoral reform.
The most likely outcome of these talks, if any, is that elections due to take place in March will be postponed until June or even September.
The negotiating teams are debating measures to ensure greater transparency at the ballot box, but many observers of the process wonder if Mugabe would stick to a deal on fairer elections, even if one is agreed.
"To believe him is to believe anything under the sun," says Masumve, who described progress at the talks as "painfully slow".
In previous elections the opposition has relied as much on anti-Mugabe sentiment as it has on widespread support for the MDC to win votes. However, allegations that the ruling party rigged the ballot in 2000 and 2002 are backed up by international observers.
As extraordinary as it may seem, though, Mugabe does have genuine support among the electorate, particularly in rural areas. His political patronage runs very strong and it can't be assumed that the opposition movement in Zimbabwe would win at the ballot box, even if the electoral process was cleaned up.
"I think European leaders should understand that if there is to be a change of leadership in Zimbabwe, then it will most likely be a Zanu-PF led transition," says Masumve.
Tsvangirai does have a point, however, when he asks how the MDC can vaccinate against a strong and brutal dictatorship that continues to weaken and oppress the population. It is now illegal for the MDC to hold public rallies. There is no doubt that Mugabe's tactic of violently oppressing his rivals while at the same time generously rewarding those loyal to him is very effective.
Community chiefs - who are hugely influential, particularly in the rural areas - are regularly seen driving new cars through small towns and villages in the countryside, while gifts of property or other pieces of valuable equipment are also common.
As election year approaches, human rights monitors say they are expecting levels of violence and intimidation against the opposition to rise.
Richard Udah (35) was an active member of the MDC until the consistent hounding by the CIO and the Zimbabwean police forced him to quit. "They beat me, they beat my elderly father and my brother and they petrol-bombed my home," Udah explained.
But the final straw was when Mugabe's recruits wrote a letter to his pregnant wife threatening to kidnap her and their child if he continued his work with the MDC. "They are thugs and we are all suffering," he said. "I pray every night that Mugabe will die. Nothing will change unless he goes."
The streets of Johannesburg, in South Africa, are full of MDC activists, forced to flee Zimbabwe because of political oppression. But it's believed that CIO operatives are even infiltrating the few safe havens on offer for exiles there.
In what was the first formal meeting of the two leaders in as many years, Mugabe met his South African counterpart Thabo Mbeki in Harare last week.
Observers say the meeting was instigated by Mbeki ahead of the controversial EU/African Union summit in Lisbon next month which British prime minister Gordon Brown has threatened to boycott if Mugabe attends.
That kind of megaphone diplomacy is seen as clumsy and unhelpful in this part of the world.
What is not clear is whether Mbeki's more subtle approach will deliver anything for the opposition movement, or for the people of Zimbabwe.