MORE THAN half the foreign nationals who came to work in Ireland in 2004 have probably left the country, according to the Central Statistics Office.
Research published yesterday shows 52 per cent of the almost 118,000 foreign nationals who received personal public service numbers (PPSNs) in 2004 are not working or claiming social welfare.
There has also been a sharp fall in the number of new arrivals to Ireland, with 127,695 PPSNs allocated to foreign nationals in 2008, down almost a third from a peak of 226,800 allocated during 2006.
The CSO analysis of records from the Revenue Commissioners and Department of Social Welfare sheds light on emigration trends for migrant workers by tracking the activity rate for PPSN numbers.
It shows that 57,112 of the 117,983 foreign nationals who received PPSNs in 2004 were still either working or claiming welfare in 2008. It is not known what happened to the rest but it is very likely that they left the Republic.
The year 2004 is an important benchmark for measuring immigration trends to the Republic because it coincides with the “big bang” EU enlargement when 10 new member states joined the EU.
This enabled hundreds of thousands of citizens from new member states such as Poland and Lithuania to travel to work in the Republic.
However, there is growing evidence that recession is causing many foreign nationals to return home, while also significantly reducing the number of new arrivals. Four out of 10 of the foreign nationals who arrived in 2004 are still working in the Republic, while almost a quarter of the 57,112 active immigrants from 2004 are currently accessing some form of social welfare.
The CSO research shows the employment rate for new arrivals is typically high in the first year of their arrival, but falls rapidly in the following two or three years before steadying off somewhat.
Social welfare activity increases substantially the longer a migrant worker stays in the country.
“The trend seems to be that people are most likely to leave in the years immediately following their arrival. The longer a migrant worker stays in the country the less likely they are to leave,” said Adrian Redmond, senior statistician with the CSO.
The CSO says 967,800 foreign nationals aged 15 and over were allocated PPSNs between 2002 and 2008. Some 425,600 of these worked at some point in 2008. Of these, 249,700 were male and 175,900 were female.
The vast majority of these were employed in: real estate/business activities (94,900); hotels and restaurants (76,800); wholesale and retail (75,300); manufacturing (49,500); and construction (37,400).
The sharp drop in PPSN allocations in 2008 was primarily driven by fewer arrivals from the 10 new EU member states.