TWO MONTHS ago, most French people would scarcely have recognised his name.
This week, all eyes are on Arnaud Montebourg (48), the man who may decide who gets to challenge Nicolas Sarkozy in next year’s presidential election.
Montebourg’s unexpectedly strong performance in the first round of the Socialist Party’s presidential primary on Sunday was not enough to push him into next weekend’s two-way play-off, but his supporters – 17 per cent of the 2.5 million people who voted last Sunday – hold the key to success for either François Hollande or Martine Aubry.
A deputy from eastern France, Montebourg positioned himself as the most left-wing of the six candidates running in the primary, calling for “deglobalisation”, “European protectionism” and partial state control of the banks.
His success on Sunday has made the outcome of the contest more unpredictable and, as Hollande and Aubry compete for his endorsement, is expected to make both lean further to the left.
Despite coming first in Sunday’s vote, with 39 per cent support, Hollande’s chances of securing the nomination looked less secure yesterday. The gap between him and second-placed Aubry, at 31 per cent, was smaller than opinion polls had suggested, and his rival looks better placed to attract Montebourg’s supporters.
Montebourg dismissed the two frontrunners as “the official candidates” during his campaign, but he is ideologically closer to Aubry than Hollande, who has positioned himself as a centrist and pledged to cut France’s deficit quicker than his opponents.
Even before the results were confirmed on Sunday night, Hollande was making an pitch to Montebourg’s voters, calling himself the “candidate of change” and pressing his green credentials.
“A message has been voiced . . . through Arnaud Montebourg, a will for protection from globalisation and for more morals in political life. I hear it,” Mr Hollande said yesterday.
Hollande’s claims of ideological affinity with the party’s left wing were dismissed by Aubry’s camp. “How can those who advocate deglobalisation, a sixth republic, a radical left, vote for somebody who is the furthest away from these political theories?” asked Jean-Christophe Cambadélis, a prominent backer of the mayor of Lille.
With the play-off just five days away, Aubry is likely to present herself as the candidate most likely to unify the left around her and thereby avoid the fate of the former socialist prime minister Lionel Jospin, who missed out on the second round of the 2002 presidential election partly because of a badly split left-wing vote.
In Hollande’s favour, however, are opinion polls showing he would perform strongest against Sarkozy in a direct contest. He is likely to claim he represents the left’s best chance of taking control of the Élysée Palace for the first time in 17 years.
While Montebourg was basking yesterday in the role of party kingmaker, Ségolène Royal – who won the support of 17 million French people in her unsuccessful campaign against Sarkozy in 2007 – was coming to terms with a spectacular fall from grace.
Royal came a distant fourth place on Sunday, winning just 7 per cent of the vote, and wept on television as supporters tried to console her.
Although she was better prepared than in 2007, her heavy focus on winning votes in the banlieues – where turnout tends to be lower – did not pay dividends. The fact that many of her ideas had been included in the party manifesto made her look less of an iconoclast, while the novelty value she enjoyed in 2007 belonged this time to Montebourg.
An endorsement from Royal would also give a boost to Hollande and Aubry, but since she is known to despise both of them, her intentions were hard to call.
She accused Aubry of “stealing” the leadership of the party from her in a contentious internal election in 2009 and has barely spoken to Hollande, the father of her four children, since they separated in 2007.
For the party itself, the US-style open primary – a first in French politics – has been a huge success. The turnout of 2.5 million was much higher than expected, and the campaign has given its senior figures a valuable public platform.
The identity of Sarkozy’s challenger may still be uncertain, but the left-wing daily Libération didn’t hesitate to call it yesterday.
“The left wins its election,” the paper said in a front page headline.