What happens next in Afghanistan? The air campaign has not met expectations (media expectations, anyway). But the lack of a large base, near or in Afghanistan has limited air sorties and bombs dropped. The sorties rose to 120 a day this week and enough B-52 bombers to carpet-bomb in the full meaning of the term have appeared.
In the 1980s the Americans built large bases in Saudi Arabia. Behind the protection of the Saudi Forces and many miles of desert, they were sited to defend, indeed to dominate, the Gulf area. Saudi Arabia seems to have paid for them. They proved a good investment for both countries when Iraq invaded Kuwait in 1990. The Americans could also use Gulf State facilities, including Oman. Such bases are no longer fully available.
Diplomats have been seeking facilities in countries near Afghanistan. Islamic governments don't want to assist attacks on other Muslims while annexations of Palestinian land and bull-dozing of homes continue. Concessions have been made - for example, for humanitarian flights - but the position is unclear. Reports say that Tajikistan will allow full use of three airfields in return for several million dollars.
The Northern Alliance are completing a gravelled landing strip near the town of Gulbahar, 40 miles from Kabul. Equipping and supplying the Northern Alliance will clog it when snow blocks land routes. For secure use, Taliban forces must be driven beyond the range of whatever artillery they still have - perhaps 20 miles.
They may have M-46 130mm guns with a 17 mile range. These, with any 122mm multiple rocket launchers (range 12 miles) that have survived, would be high on the air attack list. The M-46s were respected by the Americans in Vietnam. The rocket launchers are hard to conceal. In Kosovo, artillery survived the attentions of the US Air Force only by keeping under cover - and silent.
Faced with similar problems, the Russians built airbases, including the huge one at Bagram, near Kabul. Control is held by both the Taliban and Northern Alliance at present, making it largely unusable by both sides. The airfields at Torgundi, Jalalabad, Kandahar, Herat, Shindand, Ghanzi and others are in Taliban areas. The burden on Gulbahar will be such that an attempt to seize one or two others seems likely. Bagram would be attractive - but could be a huge security problem. Guarding an airfield like Bagram, or even Gulbahar, against suicide ground attacks will take much infantry manpower, even with sensor activated devices for detecting movement, fence interference and body heat. Northern Alliance co-operation is clearly needed. Gulbahar is usable by certain aircraft - new uniforms arrived last week.
Colonel E.D. Doyle is a retired intelligence officer and military analyst