THE constituency of Sligo Leitrim is now, in the words of Fianna Fail TD John Ellis, an urban constituency with two rural bits attached to it. Furthermore, the two rural bits of the constituency, while they have a lot in common, are very distinct entities, with Leitrim and south Sligo as far apart psychologically as any two separate constituencies.
Over a third of the population of the constituency, about 27,000 people, lives within five miles of O'Connell Street in Sligo. The destination of the votes in the town therefore, is of concern to all the candidates. Yet neither of the major parties has a viable candidate from the town.
Former broadcaster Ted Nealon is the outgoing Fine Gael TD. He is based in the town, but decided not to run this time. This decision apparently caught the two town based Fine Gael councillors by surprise, and neither secured a nomination at the convention. These went to the former TD from Leitrim, Senator Gerry Reynolds, and to Ted Nealon's director of elections, Joe Leonard, from north Sligo. Seeking to capitalise on the party's substantial vote in south Sligo, head office added Ballymote businessman John Perry to the ticket.
Fianna Fail also had pre convention problems. Its frontrunner in the town was local GP Jimmy Devins, but he withdrew shortly before the convention, leaving the party scrambling for a candidate at the last minute. Margaret Forde, a businesswoman originally from Clare, and not even a councillor, was selected. Its other two candidates are sitting TDs Mattie Brennan from south Sligo and John Ellis from Leitrim.
Labour's Declan Bree is not complaining that the other parties have effectively given him a clear run in the town, and there is talk among some of the other candidates that this time he will top the poll, thereby copper fastening this new Labour seat.
In the town itself an urban renewal scheme has transformed a waterfront previously lined by half derelict warehouses, and the docks area is similarly improved. The Model Arts Centre has recently got a large grant which will allow it to develop into one of the major arts centres in the country, and the Hawk's Well Theatre has undergone a major refurbishment.
The fact that this is part of Michael D. Higgins's support for the arts in the west will do Labour no harm. Fianna Fail points out that the urban renewal scheme came under its rule. But unemployment in the town remains a problem, and many of the local authority housing estates contain the same social problems as deprived urban areas elsewhere. There is a Sinn Fein vote here, as well as support for Bree.
Leitrim, too, has been enjoying a reversal of its misfortunes. The population decline has been halted, and incomers now outnumbering those moving away. These include local people coming back to work in new factories like the giant US based Masonite plant outside Carrick on Shannon, and families from Britain, the Continent and further afield, attracted by the tranquil lifestyle. Tourism is booming along the Shannon and the new Ballyconnell canal.
Things have not changed much in south Sligo, however, where there is no tourism to speak of and little industry. This is the heartland of Fianna Fail's Mattie Brennan, a politician of the old school whose funeral attending record is legendary. He is likely to keep his seat.
Ellis and Reynolds will divide most of the Leitrim vote between them, though 1,500 votes went to Sinn Fein's Sean MacManus last time, and are likely to do so again. He could pick up about the same number in and around Sligo town. On previous evidence much of his vote will then transfer to Declan Bree.
Ellis and Reynolds will need about 1,000 votes each from Sligo town and county, but this should not be difficult.
The Progressive Democrat candidate is the former president of the Sligo Chamber of Commerce, Jim Lawlor, but not many agree with Mary Harney that he will win a seat. This constituency is also targeted by the Christian Solidarity Party, which is running John Lacken.