Israelis celebrate statehood - for some

In the week that it marks the 50th anniversary of independent statehood, Israel is doing its utmost to prevent the approximately…

In the week that it marks the 50th anniversary of independent statehood, Israel is doing its utmost to prevent the approximately 2.5 million Palestinians gaining the same right.

The Palestinian Authority President, Mr Yasser Arafat, said on Saturday that he intended to declare formally the establishment of an independent Palestinian state in May of 1999, whether or not a permanent agreement on the division of Israeli and Palestinian territory had been reached.

Israel's Prime Minister, Mr Benjamin Netanyahu, reluctant to relinquish control of major swathes of occupied territory to Palestinian rule, has repeatedly warned Mr Arafat against such a unilateral declaration. The prime minister's aides said yesterday that, were Mr Arafat to do so, all interim peace accords reached by that point would be "scuttled". Privately, some government officials have suggested that Israel annex large sections of the occupied West Bank should Mr Arafat defy them.

While Israel is gearing up to celebrate its jubilee on Thursday, the Palestinians are highlighting the nakba (disaster) which befell them when Israel came into existence, with a Jewish population of below 600,000, and the combined Arab armies failed to stifle it at birth.

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In part to offset the Palestinian sense of despair, and also in line with his interpretation of the Oslo peace accords, Mr Arafat is preparing for imminent statehood. His target date, May 4th, 1999, represents the date set out in the Oslo deal for the conclusion of "final status" talks - negotiations on the most complex Israeli-Palestinian disputes, such as precise border demarcation, refugee rights, and the status of Jerusalem.

Given the breakdown in trust between the Israeli and Palestinian leaderships, and the deadlock in the Oslo process (no real progress has been made in more than a year), it seems inconceivable that a "final status" deal will be anywhere near at hand by then. (The US peace envoy, Mr Dennis Ross, is here on yet another shuttle mission designed to persuade Mr Netanyahu to hand over 13 per cent of the West Bank in a long overdue phase of the process.) Hence Mr Arafat's avowed intention to go it alone.

While Mr Netanyahu vehemently opposes such a move, the Israeli public, opinion polls suggest, is more sanguine. A survey conducted last year by the Ma'ariv daily suggested that 50 per cent supported Palestinian statehood and 45 per cent opposed it. The balance would probably tilt further in favour if Israelis were satisfied that the new state could not constitute a military threat to their own.

It is on this point, indeed, that moderate Israeli politicians are lambasting Mr Netanyahu for what they regard as his short-sightedness.

Mr Shimon Peres, the former Labour prime minister who is endorsing Mr Arafat's plans for independent statehood, argues that Israel's interests are best served by helping rather than hindering Mr Arafat reach that goal. Only if Palestinian statehood is achieved in partnership with Israel, says Mr Peres, can Israel hope to reach agreements with the new Palestine on critical issues, such as controlling the size of its army and limiting its capacity for signing military co-operation treaties with potentially hostile Arab neighbours.

Worryingly for Mr Netanyahu, all the indications are that a unilaterally-established state of Palestine would win immediate recognition from the vast majority of UN member-states and even, conceivably, from the US, where officials have lately taken to publicly upholding the Palestinians' "right to be free in their land".