Gerry Adams and Sinn Féin stay calm under fire

If the Sinn Féin leadership is concerned or nervous about the PSNI chief constable’s weekend assessment that Provisional IRA members were involved in the murder of Kevin McGuigan, they are certainly not showing it in public.

Sinn Féin president Gerry Adams took a brief break from his holidays to effectively say the PSNI's George Hamilton was talking nonsense, that the IRA was not involved in the killing, and that the organisation really has gone away, you know. Then he resumed his summer vacation.

In contrast, Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness, the Deputy First Minister, just stayed on his holidays, enjoying some fly-fishing, one presumes.

Neither did anyone in Sinn Féin appear particularly perturbed about criticism from Minister for Justice Frances Fitzgerald, Tánaiste Joan Burton or Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin.

Burton comments, that Sinn Féin could not deny all knowledge of alleged continuing IRA criminality, was batted away as some premature smearing of the party in advance of the general election.

Martin also continued his assault: “The maintenance of a private militia structure is not consistent or compatible with basic democratic principles,” he complained, reasonably.

But Sinn Féin appeared not to be discomfited.

Frances Fitzgerald, perhaps stung by the Labour and Fianna Fáil response, also went on the attack.

“There is no doubt that people who have been associated with PIRA have been – and continue to be – involved in the most serious crime, and neither Gerry Adams nor Sinn Féin can wash their hands of responsibility for that,” she said.

Cheap stunt

This was dismissed by Sinn Féin TD Brian Stanley as a “cheap, electorally motivated stunt” that undermined Fitzgerald’s role as Minister for Justice.

Whether the Stormont institutions can survive these latest shocks could be partly influenced by the review of the status of the Provisional IRA that Fitzgerald has asked the Garda, in liaison with the PSNI, to carry out.

It could also be influenced by whether the PSNI investigation into Kevin McGuigan’s murder uncovers any harder evidence of alleged IRA involvement.

The PSNI has put heavy resources into its investigation. So far 11 people have been arrested, with one man charged with firearms offences. But nobody has been charged for the murder.

The experience of other republican murders and actions, such as the beating to death of Paul Quinn and the £26.5 million Northern Bank robbery, tells of the power of community control through fear and just how difficult it is to breach the republican code of omertà.

Hamilton was careful in his assessment to the media on Saturday. He said that while he believed IRA members were involved in McGuigan’s killing, he had no information that the murder was ordered at senior IRA level.

The chief constable may be equally cautious when making his contribution to the review of the status of the IRA requested by Fitzgerald.

Without firm new evidence, Hamilton is unlikely to shift from his position that he accepts “the bona fides of the Sinn Féin leadership regarding their rejection of violence and pursuit of the peace process” and the party’s “assurance that they want to support police in bringing those responsible to justice”.

Army Council

In his statement, Hamilton referred to an IRA “hierarchy”. In a separate interview, BBC security correspondent Vincent Kearney pressed him on whether the IRA Army Council still existed.

Again, Hamilton was guarded.

“Our assessment is that the hierarchy of the organisation – so that it can be co-ordinated, controlled, that the members can be influenced – still exists,” he said.

There has been some speculation about who comprises that “hierarchy”, some of it based on names from the past. Still, there is no hard, tightly sourced information on current IRA leaders.

Therefore, in the absence of a smoking gun, so to speak, perhaps Sinn Féin is justified in appearing so calm and unworried and continuing in holiday mode.

Crunch time

Nonetheless, at some stage in the next month or so it is likely that DUP leader

Peter Robinson

will have to make a big decision.

Can Robinson plausibly remain in the powersharing administration with Sinn Féin in the light of the chief constable’s evaluation that IRA members were involved in McGuigan’s murder and that the IRA still exists? Should he quit the Northern Executive or seek the expulsion of Sinn Féin from the Executive, or push for some other form of penalty against the party?

Rather than hard evidence, it may all be down to what is politically credible.