Covid-19: 6,110 cases reported as Nphet says there could be 400 ICU patients within weeks

A further six deaths of Covid-19 patients have been reported by the National Public Health Emergency Team. This brings to 2,265 the total number of deaths in the pandemic.

Nphet also reported 6,110 confirmed cases of the disease, bringing to 107,997 the total number of cases in the Republic.

On Monday afternoon, there were 776 Covid-19 patients in hospital, including 70 in ICU. There have been 92 further hospitalisation in the past 24 hours.

Of Monday’s cases, 3,655 were in Dublin, 323 in Kildare, 291 in Cork, 234 in Limerick 137 in Louth and 1,470 were spread among the other counties.

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The mean age of cases is 38 years and 65 per cent were under 45 years. Ten per cent were over 65.

By mid-January, there could be a “possibility” of 1,500-2,000 people in hospital, including 200-400 in ICU, according to modelling projections presented by Nphet at a briefing on Monday evening.

These scenarios will arise unless everyone adheres to the current restrictions, Prof Philip Nolan, chair of the Nphet epidemiological modelling advisory group, warned.

While the 14-day incidence stands at 583 cases per 100,000 people, the true rate, taking account of delayed cases, is about 700-800, he said.

This is higher than in the first surge of the disease, when the true incidence was an estimated 600. However, the peak may not last as long as in the spring, he added.

By age group, the highest incidence is among 19-24 year-olds, followed by older adults up to 65 years. The incidence is lower among over-65s and those age 13-18 years, and lowest of all among younger children.

More concerned

Chief medical officer Dr Tony Holohan pleaded with leaders and organisation in communities across the country to help support people in keeping to public health advice.

“We must restrict our movements, we have to limit the people we interact with outside of our households, if we are to suppress the virus and sustain our essential services.”

Saying he is more concerned than he was at any point in the pandemic up to now, Dr Holohan urged people to put aside debates in favour of a focus on what can be done to collectively stop infections spreading.

He warned of a significant impact on mortality, on the provision of healthcare and implication for the ongoing provision of education from the continuing high levels of transmission.

This level of infection “puts many people into hospitals, and into funeral homes,” he commented.

Dr Holohan said that even though incidence among schoolchildren was lower than for other age groups, it had increased very fast. Nphet were more concerned about transmission levels in this group than it was a week ago.

“We are concerned about our ability to assure the continuing provision of any of the key public services we have tried to protect, and education is one of them.”

The incidence of disease in the community is now at a level where vulnerable people need to stay at home unless absolutely essential, according to deputy chief medical officer Dr Ronan Glynn.

The HSE is to curtail non-essential services in adult hospital in order to cope with increasing Covid-19 admission, its national director for acute operations, Liam Woods, confirmed. This will be reviewed weekly, he said.

Vaccine

Health officials have recommended against delaying administration of the second dose of the Covid-19 vaccine so more people can be immunised.

The National Immunisation Advisory Committee decided against lengthening the gap between the two doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine so more people can be given the partial protection offered by one dose.

The committee decided there was insufficient evidence for the approach, which is being followed by the UK and is under consideration by other countries.

Prof Karina Butler, chair of Niac, said delaying a second dose seemed like a resonable thing to do but the committee found there was “not a lot of evidence” for it from trial data.

Given the vaccine is being administered in the first phase to frontline health staff and vulnerable people in care homes, “you don’t want to compromise the efficacy of the vaccine in any way”. The committee would keep the proposal under review, she added.

She said discussions were ongoing about extracting six doses our of each vial of Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, instead of the recommended five. She said this was “technically possible” and if six full doses can be obtained from the vial, they should be used.

Schools

The figures come as senior Government sources have told the Irish Times that it is now more than likely that schools will remain closed beyond January 11th. Some sources expect at least an extra week of closure and possibly two.

Most Ministers privately believe that Cabinet will decide on Wednesday to delay the reopening of schools, although officials may be asked to examine keeping certain schools open in Level 5, such as disadvantaged schools or other special schools.

It is understood that there are also conversations at a senior level about whether construction should remain open or not for the rest of the Level 5 lockdown.