The path to a formal Fine Gael/Labour alliance in the next general election campaign seems set to be cleared in just over a fortnight, after several key opponents of the plan privately conceded defeat yesterday in their efforts to have an independent strategy instead.
Several respected party figures who oppose a pre-election deal with Fine Gael now say that they do not believe the party conference in Tralee would vote down Pat Rabbitte's proposed pact.
The national secretary of the ATGWU, Michael O'Reilly, who also strongly opposes an alliance with Fine Gael, said yesterday that he believed Mr Rabbitte's plan to forge a pre-election pact both on policy principles and on vote transfers would be passed.
Leading opponents of the idea, such as Brendan Howlin TD and Senator Derek McDowell, are expected to make their argument at the conference for an alternative strategy. This is that Labour should go into the next election as an independent party, and only decide whether and with whom to negotiate after the election results are known.
However, others on that side of the argument say they do not believe they can win the vote.
"I don't see the conference as the place where the debate will be won or lost. It will be won or lost with the electorate," Mr O'Reilly said yesterday, adding: "and I believe it will be lost with the electorate."
Supporters of the leader's strategy also say they expect a comfortable majority of delegates to support a motion from the National Executive Committee authorising Mr Rabbitte to negotiate in advance of the next election with "the genuinely democratic parties of opposition" (meaning Fine Gael and the Green Party).
The motion authorises him to agree "a broad common policy agenda consistent with the ideals of the Fair Society".
It also authorises him to make a voting transfer agreement with such parties, and notes that any decision to enter government after an election, and any agreed programme for government, would have to be approved by a special delegate conference after the election.
This would pave the way for the first formal Fine Gael/Labour pre-election agreement on policy principles and vote transfers since 1973, when Liam Cosgrave and Brendan Corish led their respective parties into what was called the National Coalition.
Mr Rabbitte argues that defining the alternative clearly in advance will substantially boost support for both parties. His opponents maintain that such pacts usually benefit Fine Gael but not Labour.
There are currently 13 motions on electoral strategy being considered for discussion at the conference. A motion that would rule out Labour opening post-election talks with Fianna Fáil, even if an alternative government alliance with Fine Gael failed to win enough seats to form a government, is now unlikely to be voted upon.
Labour sources said yesterday that the party's standing orders committee was likely to decide that if the main NEC motion endorsing Mr Rabbitte's strategy is carried, all others on the topic of electoral strategy will fall.
The decision not to vote on ruling out Fianna Fáil will mean that even with the firmest pre-election deal with Fine Gael for over three decades, Labour will still be going into the election with the option of post-election talks with Fianna Fáil if the alliance fails.