Hurricanes of the past, present and future

As we have seen in Florida with the approach of Floyd, modern hurricane tracking and forecasting techniques allow vulnerable …

As we have seen in Florida with the approach of Floyd, modern hurricane tracking and forecasting techniques allow vulnerable areas to be evacuated in good time. But houses and other fixtures cannot be removed to safety, and as vulnerable coastal and subtropical areas experience a steady increase in population and economic activity, the financial consequences of such disasters become greater each year.

But there is also another factor. In September 1988, Hurricane Gilbert swept over the island of Jamaica and caused havoc around the Gulf of Mexico.

At that time it was by far the most powerful hurricane of the century, with winds of up to 200 m.p.h. and a central pressure of 888 hectopascals, an all-time low for pressure in the North Atlantic.

It was then for the first time that a new and unwelcome possibility began to gain some credence in the meteorological community: could it be that although hurricane forecasting was getting better, the hurricanes themselves were getting worse?

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The fear was that Gilbert's unusual vigour might be a consequence of global warming and that it was the precursor of more frequent and more vicious hurricanes in a warmer world.

And there was another aspect to the threat. Hurricanes are known to form only over waters whose surface temperature exceeds about 26C. In a warmer world, the area where it would be possible for hurricanes to form would be significantly increased, resulting perhaps in hurricanes in regions hitherto unaffected, and travelling along tracks quite different from those to which we are accustomed.

But although the science makes some sense, not everyone was, or is, convinced that matters are that simple, and that this will really happen.

We do know the average temperature of the world has been increasing more or less steadily throughout the 1980s and the 1990s; one side of the equation has, so far, been fulfilled.

But we cannot for the moment blame one ferocious hurricane, a Gilbert or a Floyd, on this occurrence. The evidence suggests there have been others just as fierce in days gone by.

On another track entirely, to coin a phrase, it is interesting to note that it was on this day 38 years ago that we in Ireland had our worst brush with a hurricane in living memory.

It was on September 16th, 1961, that the remains of Hurricane Debbie reached our shores and brought winds with gusts in excess of 100 m.p.h.

At many places in this country, the record for the highest wind speed was established on that day, and many of these records are unbroken.