THE IRA double killing in Lurgan has raised fears of a significant loyalist response, possibly including an attack in the Republic.
The killings have confounded senior security figures who had been holding out the view that the IRA was moving to a ceasefire.
It would also appear that the IRA may be pursuing a highly dangerous strategy of deliberately trying to inflame loyalist feeling in the approach to the annual set piece standoff at Drumree Church, on the outskirts of Portadown and only about 10 miles from Lurgan.
The timing of the IRA attack, in the run up to the loyalist marching season, and the location, in one of the centres of militant loyalism, could not have been better designed to provoke retaliation.
According to security sources in the North, this may all stem from a republican analysis that the loyalist blockade of Northern Ireland last summer helped to bolster support for the IRA's political wing, Sinn Fein.
Those most directly affected by the loyalist road blocks and mass intimidation were many Catholics living in the countryside and in religiously mixed urban areas.
The week of loyalist roadblocks and intimidation also undermined Catholic confidence in the security forces. The decision to allow the Orangemen to parade down Garvaghy Road, ending the Drumcree standoff, was also seen by nationalist Ireland generally as a capitulation to the loyalists.
Middleclass nationalists, living outside the predominantly Catholic areas, were exposed to the loyalist intimidation surrounding Drumcree and this almost certainly translated into more votes for Sinn Fein in the Westminster and local government elections in Northern Ireland.
Sinn Fein is now the third largest political party in Northern Ireland with 16 per cent of the vote. This rise in its support was reflected in the Republic's general election in which the Sinn Fein vote doubled in the constituencies contested.
During the period before the elections North and South, the IRA implemented a de facto ceasefire, which probably contributed to the level of support for its political wing.
There had been speculation that the increased vote for Sinn Fein would be accepted as a vote for a ceasefire by republicans. Until yesterday, this was the view of senior security figures in the Republic.
The security interpretation was based on reports that there had been a significant shift in power within the organisation towards those who were believed to be advocating a ceasefire.
However, yesterday's IRA operation appears to confound predictions by senior security sources over the past eight months that the political wing of the IRA, buoyed by increasing electoral support, was moving the military wing of the Provisional republican organisation towards a ceasefire.
The relatively low level of IRA activity, encouraging statements from nationalist leaders in the Republic and Northern Ireland may have created a false impression that the IRA was again heading towards acceptance of a negotiated political settlement in Northern Ireland.
Security sources in Border areas reported recently that there was almost no sign of any localised IRA activity. RUC and Garda successes in intercepting IRA operations in the past year were also believed to have had a major impact in deterring IRA attacks.
However, there were residual fears inside the security forces in Northern Ireland that the IRA would revert to form once the elections were out of the way. There are understood to have been alerts about IRA attacks in Northern Ireland once the Republic's election was over.
The murders of the two police officers in Lurgan has, in the light of the increased Sinn Fein support and the approach to Drumcree, almost certainly created the conditions for renewed loyalist violence.
Senior loyalist paramilitary figures have stated that the ceasefire called by the Ulster Defence Association and the Ulster Volunteer Force, under the umbrella title of the Combined Loyalist Military Command (CLMC), has been breached by both main paramilitary groups since the end of last year.
The UDA was responsible for the assassination of a Catholic man on the Falls Road earlier this year and the UVF planted a bomb containing 25 lb of commercial explosive, which failed to detonate, at the Sinn Fein office in Monaghan town in April. Neither was officially claimed.
The loyalist violence was in response to a relatively low level of IRA activity and in the absence of the murder of any members of the indigenous security forces, the RUC and Royal Irish Regiment.
There are now fears that the murder of two local RUC members might precipitate a more intense loyalist reaction.