Heat goes out of battle between SF and SDLP

IN previous elections, the SDLP and Sinn Fein would be at each other's throats by now

IN previous elections, the SDLP and Sinn Fein would be at each other's throats by now. The SDLP would be accusing Sinn Fein of offering the community nothing but death and destruction; Sinn Fein would be decrying the SDLP as a bunch of middle class professionals out of touch with ordinary nationalists.

But the peace process has changed all that. The heat has gone out of the contest for the nationalist vote. "There is no great enmity between us any more", said one senior SDLP source.

"It has been that way at leadership level for quite a while and that mood has gradually drifted down to the grass roots. We have stopped trying to convert each other's voters. The SDLP has generally accepted that a Sinn Fein vote exists and is not going away.

"We are out to consolidate our vote, not to invade Sinn Fein's territory. It's much less aggressive." There are no major policy differences between the parties, he says.

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"The IRA campaign hasn't restarted in the North so we can't disagree on that. Both parties think the election is unnecessary and both are critical of the British attitude to the peace process.

"The SDLP isn't making a big deal out of decommissioning. It wants the matter discussed at the start of talks, then set aside. Sinn Fein isn't taking part in the forum, while we will be there. But it's just a pragmatic move. We will be adopting an a la carte attitude to the forum.

Most observers predict that the SDLP Sinn Fein share of the nationalist vote will remain broadly the same, with about two out of three nationalists voting SDLP and the rest supporting Sinn Fein.

The SDLP is expected to secure 24-28 per cent of the overall poll; Sinn Fein 10-12 per cent. Sinn, Fein, however, is likely to lose some of its more militant supporters.

Dozens of republican activists in Belfast, disillusioned with the peace process, have refused to canvass for the party. "I wouldn't put up an election poster in my window", says one former prisoner. "I am sickened by the Sinn Fein strategy. We shouldn't be contesting these elections. The only place they are leading to is a new Stormont."

A former Sinn Fein candidate says he won't be voting for the party. An IRA member in Andersonstown hopes that the Fein vote will collapse "so that we can get rid of this peace process for once and for all".

That is unlikely to happen. Although Sinn Fein will lose some hard line supporters, it is likely gain votes from middle class nationalists who were put off by the IRA campaign.

The INLA's political wing, Irish Republican Socialist Party, and Republican Sinn Fein, urging nationalists to boycott election. Mr Kevin McQuillan the IRSP says: "We want nationalists either not to vote or to spoil their votes.

"Sinn Fein, the voice of principled leadership has become a wannabe constitutional nationalist party. It is acquiescing to an internal solution to this conflict. There is frustration and anger among its left wing supporters."

The SDLP source says that nationalists of all shades are generally apathetic about the election. "They will vote, but with an air of resignation, and just to keep the unionists out.

The former civil rights leader, Ms Bernadette McAliskey, won't be supporting Sinn Fein "or any other nationalist alliance".

"The progressive people I know will either not vote, spoil their vote or else support the Greens or the Women's Coalition", she says.

Most nationalists in her home town of Coalisland, Co Tyrone, are uninterested in the election, she claims.

She also believes the SDLP and Sinn Fein have now broadly similar politics. "They stand for roughly the same things. It's like Fianna Fail and Fine Gael in the South. People will vote for whoever they and their family have always voted for."

WEST Belfast has long been regarded as the cockpit of nationalist politics. There are 18 parties running in the constituency but the real contest is between two - the SDLP and Sinn Fein.

Mr Gerry Adams is eager to win back the Westminster seat from the SDLP MP, Dr Joe Hendron, at the next general election. So the poll on Thursday will be an important litmus test for republicans.

Recent boundary changes have helped Sinn Fein's cause enormously. The outlying nationalist estates of Twinbrook and Poleglass - with about 4,000 votes - have been moved into the constituency. They are solidly Sinn Fein.

There are five seats in West Belfast and most observers expect Sinn Fein to win three and the SDLP two. That would mean election for Mr Adams, Ms Dodie McGuinness and Mr Alex Maskey of Sinn Fein; and Dr Hendron and Mr Alex Attwood of the SDLP.

West Belfast has an electorate of 61,500. A turnout of 55-60 per cent is expected. Before the boundary changes, there were about 7,000 unionist votes in the area, which would have been enough to elect a unionist candidate.