LETTER FROM GREECE: Politics is in complete disarray as people brace themselves for at least a decade of hardship and misery arising from a much-needed bailout
TWO INESCAPABLE facts emerge from the new political scenario in Greece. First, that Greece was, is and will remain bankrupt – socially and morally as well as financially. The figures don’t add up. They add down. Few people in the street believe that the new “government of national unity” can do anything about it.
Second, the structure of politics has fallen apart, with a massive question mark over the future of the two major parties, Pasok and New Democracy (ND) – Pasok because, under former prime minister George Papandreou, it failed to solve the crisis; ND because it caused it.
It’s being widely bruited that austerity, even with a 50 per cent “haircut” on Greek debt, will not cure the long-term ills of Greece, and will do severe harm to individuals and business in the meantime. This is a fact of life which bewilders Greeks because they can see no way out of the impasse.
The media is full of ordinary citizens proclaiming their inability to survive with reduced wages and increased taxes.
Papandreou’s exit from a political career also marks the end of the Papandreou dynasty, which ironically began with his grandfather (also George) forming a government of national unity in 1944-1945 which – for a short time – included KKE, the communist and oldest party in Greece. This is not an option today, as KKE and other far-left groups boycotted the formation of the coalition.
Papandreou frequently said he would willingly sacrifice his political career if thereby he could improve Greece’s prospects. When, on October 31st, he announced a referendum on the bailout, it not only astonished EU leaders but came as a complete surprise to his own party. Was it a stroke of political genius or the last act of a man desperately clinging to power? Either way, Papandreou was in a win-win situation: a No vote would enable him to say to Brussels “I told you so”. A Yes vote would have had the same effect. He could either have continued in power with confidence, or left the stage with dignity, as he now has done.
Finance minister Evangelos Venizelos, who remains in place, pulled the rug from under the referendum plan, thus signalling that Papandreou, if he persisted, would split Pasok and lose a vote of confidence. It was an undisguised, cynical bid for the leadership of Pasok, which he is likely to win when the contest takes place. Venizelos is anxious to lead Pasok into next February’s election, and possibly emerge as the next prime minister. Already, the “heave” against Papandreou has begun, but Pasok has compromised itself very seriously in the public’s eyes with its internal ruptures between the old-style clientelists and the Papandreou-led reformists.
All Greeks now seem to accept that the bailout conditions will indenture every man, woman and child to at least a decade of hardship, recession and misgivings. The question of whether Greece leaves the euro zone and, indeed, the EU itself, is still wide open. It’s jokingly said that, had the referendum gone ahead, the ballot paper would have needed three boxes – Yes, No and Don’t Know. In a recent poll, 60 per cent of Greeks said they do not know the exact details of their indebtedness and its consequences. They have yet to be told. This must be a prime task of the coalition, if February’s elections are to give voters a real choice of the next government.
What is certain is that Greek mistrust of Brussels, and especially of German chancellor Angela Merkel, is widespread. A recent cartoon in the Kathimerininewspaper showed Merkel saying "Ja?" as she handled a finger-puppet of French president Nicolas Sarkozy, who mutters a plaintive " Oui".
Given that Greece is now effectively into a three-month election campaign, it remains to be seen whether a deeply divided coalition, whose constituents will all be jockeying for pole position in February, can actually stay together that long. It is really a government of national disunity. The mutual suspicion and antipathy among the parties – Pasok, ND and the far-right Laos – is hardly conducive to working together for the good of Greece.
Whatever the personal inclinations of the new prime minister, Loukas Papademos, he cannot change the landscape of popular resistance and negativity. Morale is at an all-time low. When your country is bankrupt, and on the verge of social and political implosion, and the only rescuing hands want to give with one and take with the other, your sense of allegiance goes numb.
With the first instalment of the emergency property tax payable now; with the university system in meltdown due to savage cuts; with 20-25 per cent of retail outlets closing; with youth unemployment running at 40 per cent, this is not a good time to be going to the polls.
The American writer Michael Lewis, launching his recent book on the economies of Greece, Ireland and Iceland among others, said: “The Irish have a greater talent for suffering. If you imposed on the Greeks what the Irish have imposed on the Irish population, people would be getting shot.”
I think we will have to hold our breath on that one. A winter of severe discontent, indeed.