Goodman appearance raises old passions

It's that man again. Drapier mentioned last week that many eyebrows were raised in here when Larry Goodman was seen at the National…

It's that man again. Drapier mentioned last week that many eyebrows were raised in here when Larry Goodman was seen at the National Ploughing Championships criticising the Government for its less than full-blooded response to the current farming crisis. Many felt the less heard from that quarter the better.

Larry himself was not around the House this week, but the mere mention of his name was enough to generate sufficient disorder to have Seamus Pattison suspend the House not once but twice, to have Pat Rabbitte flung out and create a mini-crisis for the Progressive Democrats as they sought to find out just what it was Ned O'Keeffe actually did say at Question Time on Tuesday.

Indeed, on top of it all we had poor Joe Lennon who was sent up to the political correspondents to clarify just what the Government's line was and, as Bertie Ahern admitted later, who managed to confuse everybody.

It was a reminder, if such were needed, about how deeply passions run on the subject of Larry Goodman. The truth is that the beef tribunal left more questions than it answered. There's a huge reservoir of resentment at the public having to foot the bill for irregularities in the beef trade out of which some people grew very rich, and a resentment, too, at the seeming indifference, not to say contempt, in which both politicians and the public are held by some of the same people.

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This one will run and run. And coming as it did in the same week as Vincent Browne's Magill story about AIB and the Revenue it was a reminder that some sections of corporate Ireland still have a long way to go before public confidence can be taken for granted.

Indeed, all in all it was a bad week for Allied Irish Banks. Judge Patrick Moran's strictures on its performance in the money-laundering case were well made, and the bank's early unguarded reaction revealed a level of either indifference or contempt that was breathtaking. The veneer was quickly restored, but not before we got a glimpse of what the real mindset may well be.

In other words, just a few weeks into this session and all sorts of lively issues are tumbling out, most of them unexpected but all promising a controversial and unpredictable few months ahead. And all this before the tribunals have even started.

Meanwhile, in the world of party politics Drapier is surprised at how little attention has been given to the resignation of Michael Bell from Labour. Drapier is sure there is no going back for Bell this time. In crude terms it's effectively a bonus of two Dail votes for Bertie, almost out of the blue and without effort on his part. In its own way it is as good as a by-election victory.

Drapier, like everybody else in here, sees this as a secure Government. The independents by now are welded in and in truth are not all that hard to please - bread, butter and a bit of jam here and there, recognition and respect, and in the case of Jackie Healy Rae the freedom to take the odd potshot at John O'Donoghue. Simple things really, and of course the promise that no surprises will force them into facing hard voting decisions.

Bertie would love a win in Cork, but already the decision of Michael Bell makes up for the loss of Ray Burke's seat and puts a long-term question mark over Labour's ability to hold on to its Louth seat in the next election.

Why did Bell do it? There was certainly no question of principle, no matter of policy, fundamental or trivial, nor did he seek to represent it as such.

It was from first to last a question of personality and of grievance. Bell is a loner and has had more than one brush with the Labour leadership, Dick Spring as much as Ruairi Quinn. He was annoyed in the last European election when he felt that a little more attention to Leinster and a little less to Dublin could have won him the seat, which he lost by a mere handful of votes, and it was once again Labour's Euro politics which precipitated this latest and apparently final crisis. Drapier can tell Michael Bell that there was no conspiracy against him. It was not in the interests of the Labour leaders to ditch him, especially since he had effectively stymied Peter Cassells' earlier attempts to get on the ticket.

Cassells would have been a strong candidate, but without him Labour needed Bell on the ticket. But by the same token it was up to him to keep his eye on the ball, to spot what young Sean Butler was up to, to know he was in danger, to realise that he had few enough debts to call in and to get out there and ask the delegates for their votes. You don't find Bertie Ahern taking delegate votes for granted at a nomination convention. Or John Bruton or Ruairi Quinn. Had Bell seen the danger signs he could have got out there and done something about it. But if he didn't it's hard to expect his colleagues, all of whom had their own preoccupations, to have seen them for him and to have done his work for him.

It was a cock-up, not a conspiracy, and as things now stand it leaves Labour with little to no chance of a Euro seat in Leinster. To have lost Peter Cassells was careless, to lose both Michael Bell and Peter Cassells is a disaster, and it shows what can happen when everyone takes their eye off the ball at the same time.

In this case Labour's loss is Bertie Ahern's gain, and no matter what happens in Cork his Dail position is now greatly strengthened and at no cost to himself. He can't afford to take Michael Bell for granted, but neither will Bell strain himself in trying to force an election.

Drapier has been out knocking on doors in the Second City, and what he has found is virtually an issues-free election. So far it is about personalities rather than policies, and that is probably working to the advantage of Simon Coveney. The respect for his father still runs deep, and he himself has cut quite a dash in his own right.

On paper, however, Fianna Fail's Sinead Behan has to be the favourite. All the figures and current national polls, not to mention Bertie Ahern's popularity, say so.

But the same figures did little for Sandra Marsh in Limerick or Michael Kennedy in Dublin North, and the one lesson which we all know by now is that by-elections are different, that they will go against the national trend, that they are seen by many people as a one-off, that local factors will be very important and that most of all they will be decided, lost and won on transfers. And that's the way it will be in Cork.