Growing speculation that Australian prime minister Julia Gillard could be dumped by her party before the end of the year forced senior ministers to rally behind her today after a disastrous start to 2012.
Defence minister Stephen Smith joined a string of cabinet ministers to offer support for Ms Gillard despite media suggestions that she could face a leadership challenge this year from foreign minister Kevin Rudd, who she replaced in June 2010.
Some political analysts now believe Ms Gillard is unlikely to lead the party to the next election, due in the second half of 2013, with a move against her most likely in the latter part of the year."
MPs are starting to think the boat is going down, and they're starting to panic," said Monash University political analyst Nick Economou. "I don't think she'll lead the Labor Party to the next election."
The first major opinion polls for 2012 found government support stalled near record lows, while online bookmakers Sportsbet today said odds on Mr Rudd returning as leader by the end of the year have shortened to just $1.20 for a $1.00 bet.
"I'm a strong supporter of the prime minister. I think she's doing a very good job in very tough circumstances," Mr Smith told Australian television from Brussels.
He joined climate change minister Greg Combet, communications minister Stephen Conroy, and regional affairs minister Simon Crean, who have all called for an end to party dissent, with Mr Crean saying Mr Rudd was not a team player.
Mr Rudd is seen as a lone operator by his Labor colleagues and was toppled as prime minister in a party room coup after his government struggled to pass reforms, but polls show he remains popular with voters.
Adding to the government's dilemma is the fact Ms Gillard governs with support from two independents and the Greens, and any leadership change could force a change of government or an early election if a new leader can't negotiate similar support.
Ms Gillard dismissed the latest rumblings against her saying she was focused on delivering good policy.
"I don't worry about chatter in the media, I get on with the job," she said.
Ms Gillard finished 2011 strengthened after a disaffected opposition lawmaker became parliamentary speaker, effectively bolstering her majority from one vote to three.
But she has had a poor start to 2012.She lost the support of one independent in January after she reneged on a promise to change gambling laws, and then lost a staffer who quit over his role in promoting a rowdy protest against opposition leader Tony Abbott that turned into a security scare.
That means the government is back to square one, commanding only a one seat majority in parliament and with one lawmaker under a cloud, due to an ongoing police investigation over the use of union money to pay for prostitutes.
At the same time, house prices are falling and manufacturers continue to cut jobs, although MS Gillard may get a reprieve if the central bank cuts interest rates next week as economists expect.
Any move against Ms Gillard is considered unlikely before July, when new carbon tax and mining taxes both start. That would allow Labor to deliver its budget in May, and to campaign for the March 24th Queensland state election, where polls suggest Labor will be thrown from office.
Reuters