The Fianna Fáil fightback has so far not materialised, with only a 10% vote share in Dublin, writes STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor
WITH JUST a week to go before the elections on June 5th, Fianna Fáil looks set for the worst electoral performance in its history while Fine Gael is poised to become the biggest party for the first time and Labour is in with a strong chance of its best ever result.
The latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll indicates that the predicted Fianna Fáil fightback has not materialised and the momentum remains with Fine Gael and Labour who between them still command over 50 per cent of the vote.
There has been some shift in support between the two Opposition parties with Labour benefiting from a swing which puts it in with a strong chance of gains in the European as well as in the local elections.
Looking specifically at the response of voters to the question of how they intend to vote in the local elections, there is some variation from the general election responses. The main difference is the significantly higher support for Independents and Others that cuts into the performance of all the parties.
The detailed figures for the core vote in the local elections, which includes the 19 per cent of undecided voters, show that Dublin is easily the worst region of the country for Fianna Fáil.
The party's core vote in the capital is just 10 per cent, a drop of three points since the last poll. Fianna Fáil is now well behind Labour and Fine Gael in Dublin and is only on the same share of the vote as Sinn Féin.
If this performance is reflected in the result on June 5th, the party will suffer severe losses in all four Dublin local authorities and will also lose its European Parliament seat.
Things are a bit better in the rest of the country with the party on 19 per cent in Munster, 20 per cent in the Rest of Leinster and 23 per cent in Connacht Ulster.
Across the age groups Fianna Fáil does worst among the 25 to 34 category, closely followed by the youngest 18 to 24-year-old voters. Its strongest support comes from the over 65s with 29 per cent opting for the party in the local elections.
In terms of social class Fianna Fáil does worst among the better-off AB and C1 groups, where its support has collapsed since the general election two years ago. It does best in the poorest DE category, which would include many people on social welfare. The Fine Gael core vote has slipped marginally since the last poll but it remains ahead of Fianna Fáil among all age groups and across all regions and social classes, except the very poorest.
When asked how they would vote in the local elections 23 per cent of voters in Dublin opted for Fine Gael, while 24 per cent backed the party in Munster, 30 per cent in Connacht Ulster and 24 per cent the rest of Leinster.
In age terms Fine Gael does best among the over 65s, followed by the 50 to 64 age group but it has even support across all the other age categories. The party is strongest among the best-off AB social category but it beats Fianna Fáil in every social category, apart from the DE social group where they are evenly divided.
The party is still on course to become the biggest for the first time in any election it has contested since its foundation in 1933. While it did win 39 per cent of the vote in the general election of November 1982 it was still behind Fianna Fáil in that contest.
Labour is also on the verge of a record-breaking performance in the local elections on June 5th. Its share of the adjusted vote in the local election question is 20 per cent, which is one percentage point than its best-ever general election performance in 1992.
In terms of the core vote Labour is on 15 per cent nationally. In Dublin the party has jumped six points since the last poll two weeks ago and it is now the biggest party on 25 per cent.
It is 16 per cent in the rest of Leinster, 11 per cent in Munster and 4 per cent in Connacht-Ulster.
In age terms Labour remains weakest among the over-65s but it has consolidated its support base across other age groups. In class terms the party's vote is now evenly spread across all categories.
The Green Party support is at the same level as the last poll but it is now more heavily concentrated in Dublin which will come as a relief. It is on 5 per cent in Dublin, 2 per cent in Munster and just 1 per cent in the Rest of Leinster and Connacht Ulster. The party's support is now more middle-aged than before.
The Sinn Féin support for the local elections is strongest in Dublin at 10 per cent, followed by Connacht Ulster at 8 per cent, Munster at 8 per cent and the Rest of Leinster at 7 per cent. In class terms the party is strongest among C2 and DE voters while in age terms it does best among 18 to 24-year-olds.
The level of support for Independents has jumped over the past two weeks and is now far higher for the local elections than it is in the question about the general election.
This reflects the strength of Independent councillors around the country and the campaigns being waged by many new Independent candidates.
The national share of the core local election vote being won by Independents/Others is now 13 per cent. That rises to 17 per cent in Munster and Connacht Ulster, 11 per cent in Dublin, 10 per cent in the Rest of Leinster.
Despite the fact that it is now only a week to the local elections 13 per cent of voters do not know how they will vote while 5 per cent say they will not vote and 1 per cent refused to say what they will do.
One of the key messages from the poll is that the Fianna Fáil vote is becalmed in the low 20 per cent range, despite all the campaigning of the past few weeks. Another is that Fine Gael has consolidated in the mid 30 per cent range while Labour has put on a spurt that could yield spectacular gains on June 5th. "Labour is on the verge of a record- breaking performance in the local elections